中青旅：旅行社业务营收高增，整体业绩有所下滑

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's overall performance declined in the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue increasing by 4.65% YoY to 7.048 billion yuan, but net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 25.77% YoY to 153 million yuan [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue increased by 5.51% YoY to 2.697 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 19.29% YoY to 80 million yuan [1] - The company's travel agency business saw significant revenue growth, driven by exclusive resources and strong competitiveness in visa services [2] - The company is actively innovating and expanding its product offerings in various segments, including scenic areas, tourism services, integrated marketing, and hotels [4] Business Performance Travel Agency Business - Revenue increased significantly due to the company's focus on exclusive resources and strong market competitiveness in visa services [2] Scenic Area Business - Wuzhen Scenic Area received 5.9934 million visitors, a decrease of 2.68% YoY, with revenue declining by 4.36% YoY to 1.325 billion yuan and net profit decreasing by 20.32% YoY to 265 million yuan [2] - Gubei Water Town received 1.0025 million visitors, a decrease of 10.55% YoY, with revenue declining by 21.38% YoY to 429 million yuan [2] Integrated Marketing Business - Revenue decreased by 5.46% YoY to 1.323 billion yuan, but net profit increased significantly due to improved management and higher gross margins [2] Hotel Business - Revenue decreased by 26.61% YoY to 234 million yuan, mainly due to the closure of some loss-making stores [2] Strategic Business - Chuangge Technology achieved revenue of 2.574 billion yuan and net profit of 39 million yuan, both remaining stable YoY [2] Financial Metrics Q3 2024 - Gross margin decreased by 3.8 percentage points YoY to 23.5% [3] - Sales/management/financial expense ratios changed by +0.0/-0.9/-0.7 percentage points to 8.5%/5.8%/2.0% respectively [3] - Investment income as a percentage of revenue decreased by 1.0 percentage point YoY to 0.1% [3] - Credit impairment losses decreased by 111.5% YoY, likely due to the reversal of previously accrued impairments [3] - Net profit margin attributable to the parent company decreased by 0.9 percentage points YoY to 3.0% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 10.1/10.8/11.5 billion yuan and net profit attributable to the parent company of 140/200/290 million yuan in 2024-2026, with current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 52x/38x/26x [8] Innovation and Development - The company is continuously innovating in its scenic area business, with Wuzhen launching various cultural activities and Gubei Water Town enriching its "City of Light" cultural IP through concerts, light shows, and food festivals [4] - Non-scenic area businesses are also being developed, with integrated marketing focusing on high-level government meetings, travel agencies enhancing product quality, and hotel businesses upgrading cultural tourism products and services [4]