海泰新光：降库影响进入尾声，看好订单恢复业绩环比改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected CAGR of 20.7% for 2024-2026 [2][3] Core Views - The company's performance in 24Q1-3 was impacted by customer inventory reduction, with revenue of 319 million yuan (YoY -15.3%) and net profit of 97 million yuan (YoY -17.6%) [1] - In 24Q3, revenue was 98 million yuan (YoY -9.4%), with net profit of 27 million yuan (YoY -7%) and adjusted net profit of 25 million yuan (YoY -2.8%) [1] - The inventory reduction impact is expected to end, and shipments are likely to return to normal levels from 24Q4 [1] - Overseas subsidiaries are accelerating construction, with the US subsidiary starting mass production and the Thailand subsidiary in trial production [1] - The company's self-branded equipment sales are growing, with new 4K fluorescence endoscope systems approved in September 2024, expected to boost sales [2] - The company is expanding its product matrix, with new products like 4mm hysteroscopes and 2.9mm cystoscopes expected to launch in 2025 [2] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 463/580/727 million yuan, with net profit of 158/200/256 million yuan [3] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 1.31/1.66/2.12 yuan per share [3] - P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 28.9/22.9/17.8, and P/B ratios are 3.2/3.1/3.0 [3] - Operating cash flow for 2024-2026 is expected to be 237/160/215 million yuan [6][10] Business Development - The company is focusing on key departments like gynecology and head/neck surgery, developing competitive endoscope products and expanding peripheral solutions [2] - ODM business and self-branded products are progressing simultaneously, with new products like 4mm hysteroscopes already shipping over 2,000 units [2] Overseas Expansion - The US subsidiary, Aumek, has completed audits and started mass production [1] - The Thailand subsidiary has obtained BOI certification and production licenses, currently in trial production and engineering change phases [1]