SPD BANK(600000) Huafu Securities·2024-11-07 00:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark index within the next six months [20]. Core Insights - The company's performance has significantly improved, with revenue growth and net profit growth recorded at -2.2% and 25.9% respectively for the first three quarters of 2024, showing notable improvements compared to the first half of the year [1]. - Asset quality is showing marginal improvement, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.38% as of September 2024, down 3 basis points from June 2024, and a provision coverage ratio of 184%, up 8.5 percentage points [2]. - The company continues to increase its credit issuance, with loans growing by 9.01% year-on-year as of September 2024, reflecting a 2.2 percentage point increase from June 2024 [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected net profit growth rates of 26.85%, 9.02%, and 9.73% respectively, indicating improved profit elasticity due to significantly reduced credit costs [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 1735 billion, with a growth rate of 0.01%, while net profit is expected to reach 466 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 26.85% [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.59 yuan in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.27 [6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio has decreased to 1.38%, and the provision coverage ratio has improved to 184% [2][16]. - The company is focusing on controlling new non-performing loans while reducing existing ones, leading to a healthier asset quality profile [2]. Credit Issuance - The total loan amount reached approximately 55,791 billion by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.01% [3][12]. - The company has maintained a strong position in corporate lending, which is expected to continue driving growth [3]. Profitability Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual increase in revenue growth rates over the next few years, with projections of 4.54% and 5.45% for 2025 and 2026 respectively [4]. - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to stabilize, contributing positively to profitability [12].