盐湖股份：钾锂价格下行，业绩短期承压，关注公司新建项目进展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for Yihu Co., Ltd. (益湖股份) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure due to declining potassium and lithium prices, but there is potential for recovery as new projects progress [1][6] - The report highlights that potassium chloride prices are stabilizing and may rebound, while lithium carbonate prices are expected to return to reasonable levels as high-cost production capacity is phased out [2][6] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 30,739 million CNY, with a projected decline to 14,927 million CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.8% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased from 15,568 million CNY in 2022 to an estimated 4,881 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 38.3% [1] - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to drop from 69.0% in 2022 to 14.3% in 2024 [1] Operational Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10,449 million CNY, down 33.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3,141 million CNY, down 43.91% year-on-year [1][2] - The sales expense ratio increased to 0.65%, while the management expense ratio rose to 8.11% in the same period [3] - Cash flow from operating activities decreased by 48.45% year-on-year, indicating significant cash flow challenges [3] Project Development - The 40,000 tons/year integrated salt and lithium project is progressing as planned, with completion expected by the end of the year [3][6] - The company has signed contracts worth approximately 4.247 billion CNY for the project, indicating strong commitment to its development [3] Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's revenue will recover to 15,667 million CNY in 2025 and 17,741 million CNY in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 5,303 million CNY and 6,135 million CNY [6] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 0.90 CNY, with expectations of growth to 1.13 CNY by 2026 [1][6]