迎驾贡酒：需求疲软，Q3业绩增速放缓

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy-A" for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company has shown a revenue growth of 13.81% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with total revenue reaching 55.13 billion yuan and a net profit of 20.06 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.19% [4][5]. - Despite a slowdown in growth in Q3 due to weak demand during the holiday season, the company’s mid-to-high-end liquor sales remain stable, indicating potential for future growth [5][6]. - The company is focusing on its "Dongcang" series, which is expected to continue gaining traction as consumer preferences shift towards higher-end products [6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a net profit margin of 36.37%, slightly down from the previous quarter but still showing an improvement year-on-year [6]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 75.84%, up by 2.88 percentage points year-on-year, driven by the growth in mid-to-high-end liquor products [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 3.39 yuan, with expected net profits of 27.14 billion yuan, 31.42 billion yuan, and 36.54 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][9]. Market and Product Analysis - In Q3 2024, the company’s revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 12.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.12%, while revenue from ordinary liquor decreased by 9.16% [5]. - The company’s revenue from domestic markets was 11.16 billion yuan, up 6.85% year-on-year, indicating a solid domestic market presence [5]. - The company has been expanding its market presence in surrounding areas while maintaining a strong foothold in its home province [6].