Zhende Medical(603301) 西南证券·2024-11-07 05:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.68 yuan for the next 6 months [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with overseas destocking effects eliminated [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 3.13 billion yuan (-2.6% YoY), while net profit attributable to the parent company was 310 million yuan (+2.3% YoY) [1] - Q3 2024 single-quarter revenue reached 1.08 billion yuan (+19.9% YoY), with net profit attributable to the parent company at 150 million yuan (+131.7% YoY) [1] - The high net profit growth in Q3 2024 was mainly due to asset disposal gains of nearly 100 million yuan [2] Business Performance - Excluding isolation protection products, Q3 2024 revenue was 1.054 billion yuan (+21.1% YoY) [2] - Isolation protection products (masks, protective clothing, isolation gowns, antigen test kits) revenue was 30 million yuan (-10.6% YoY) [2] - Revenue growth was driven by overseas business and domestic hospital business, with destocking effects gradually decreasing [2] - Domestic hospital channel performance was strong, with increased product portfolio and hospital coverage [3] - Overseas sales mainly follow OEM/ODM models, with long-term strategic partnerships established with multiple well-known medical device brands [3] Strategic Development - The company has accelerated M&A activities to enrich domestic product lines and expand overseas channels [3] - In April 2023, the company acquired Jiangsu Inbase to supplement its therapy product line with pre-filled catheter flush syringes [3] - In late 2022, the company acquired UK subsidiary Rocialle Healthcare Limited to integrate community medical distribution resources [3] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 420 million, 470 million, and 570 million yuan in 2024-2026 [4] - Revenue growth rates are projected at 5.74%, 16.89%, and 16.27% for 2024-2026 [5] - EPS is forecasted to be 1.57, 1.76, and 2.16 yuan for 2024-2026 [5] - ROE is expected to be 7.76%, 7.98%, and 8.90% for 2024-2026 [5] Business Segment Analysis - Surgical infection control: Expected revenue growth of 20%, 18%, 18% for 2024-2026, with gross margin improving to 35% [8] - Basic wound care: Expected revenue growth of 10%, 13%, 13% for 2024-2026, with gross margin improving to 26.5% [8] - Pressure therapy and fixation: Expected revenue growth of 20%, 18%, 18% for 2024-2026, with gross margin at 42% [8] - Ostomy and modern wound care: Expected revenue growth of 25%, 25%, 20% for 2024-2026, with gross margin at 47% [8] - Infection protection: Expected revenue decline of 60% in 2024, followed by 5% growth in 2025-2026, with gross margin at 36% [9]