wsdl(600995) Guoxin Securities·2024-11-07 05:47Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4][15]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant increase in net profit due to improved water inflow and rapid development of new energy storage business, with a year-on-year growth of 27.6% in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [1][5]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 4.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.12%, driven by increased hydropower generation and the commissioning of the Foshan Baotang energy storage station [1][5]. - The new energy storage business saw a remarkable growth of 209.53% year-on-year, attributed to the operational capacity increase to 423,800 kW [2][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.045 billion yuan, up 27.62% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 1.058 billion yuan, reflecting a 29.23% increase [1][5]. - The third quarter alone saw a net profit of 419 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.88% and a year-on-year increase of 231.49% [1][5]. Revenue Breakdown - The revenue from pumped storage business was 3.084 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.39% year-on-year due to policy-related revenue reductions [2][14]. - The revenue from peak regulation hydropower business increased by 37.56% year-on-year to 1.199 billion yuan, driven by improved water inflow and a total generation of 6.21 billion kWh, up 43.85% year-on-year [2][14]. - The new energy storage business generated 209 million yuan, marking a 209.53% increase year-on-year due to the commissioning of the Foshan Baotang energy storage station [2][14]. Future Outlook - The company has initiated its first independent participation in the electricity market with its Meizhou pumped storage power station, which is expected to enhance profitability as market reforms progress [2][14]. - The company plans to increase its pumped storage capacity significantly, with projections to reach 2.9 million kW by 2030 and 4.4 million kW by 2035 [14]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 at 1.312 billion, 1.629 billion, and 2.007 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 29.4%, 24.2%, and 23.2% [4][15]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 36, 21, and 17 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][15].