上海建工：信用减值计提减少，新兴业务加速拓展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected increase in earnings per share (EPS) over the next three years [3][8]. Core Views - The company has shown a significant improvement in cash flow due to a decrease in accounts receivable and reduced credit impairment provisions. The cash flow is expected to further improve with the implementation of debt reduction policies and stabilization in the real estate market [3][8]. - New contracts signed in Shanghai accounted for 74% of the total, with emerging businesses contributing 25%. The total new contracts signed in the first three quarters of 2024 amounted to 277.803 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.18% [4][6]. - The company reported a stable gross profit margin of 8.19% and a net profit margin of 0.69% for the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight increase in net profit year-on-year [5][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 2,140.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.05% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 13.51 billion yuan, an increase of 4.30% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters was -214.94 billion yuan, with a significant outflow compared to the previous year. However, the collection of receivables has improved, leading to a decrease in accounts receivable by 1.484 billion yuan [8][9]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 projected at 16.39 billion yuan, 17.18 billion yuan, and 18.01 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding EPS for these years is expected to be 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.20 yuan [8][9]. Key Financial Metrics - The company’s gross profit margin is projected to remain stable at around 9.1% from 2024 to 2026, with a return on equity (ROE) gradually increasing to 4.0% by 2026 [9][10].