古井贡酒：业绩符合预期，增长韧性延续

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Increase Holding" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 19.069 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.53% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same period was 4.746 billion yuan, up 24.49% year-on-year [1] - The company maintained strong growth resilience despite a slowdown in sales momentum in the third quarter [1] Market Data Summary - The company achieved a revenue of 5.263 billion yuan in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13.36% [1] - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.174 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.60% [1] - The company’s market share continues to improve within the province, benefiting from the upgrade of local banquet consumption [1] Financial Forecasts - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23.869 billion yuan, 26.628 billion yuan, and 29.449 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.9%, 11.6%, and 10.6% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 5.569 billion yuan, 6.325 billion yuan, and 7.078 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 21.3%, 13.6%, and 11.9% respectively [2] - The gross margin is projected to remain stable, increasing from 79.1% in 2023 to 80.0% by 2026 [2] Profitability Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to be 22.5% in 2024, slightly decreasing to 22.1% by 2026 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 8.68 yuan in 2023 to 13.39 yuan in 2026 [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 22.1 in 2023 to 14.3 by 2026 [2]