SFY(002572) 兴业证券·2024-11-07 06:17Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company Sofia (002572) [1] Core Views - The company is facing short-term pressure on performance, but is firmly advancing its multi-brand, full-category, and all-channel strategy [1] - The macroeconomic environment has impacted revenue, with a notable decline in Q3 2024 revenue and profit [1] - The company is expected to benefit from national subsidy policies, which may enhance the market share of leading companies [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 76.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.22 billion yuan, down 3.24% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 27.26 billion yuan, a decline of 21.13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.57 billion yuan, down 21.16% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 35.86%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024 and 2025 is adjusted to 110.14 billion yuan and 117.63 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year changes of -5.6% and +6.8% [2] Brand Performance Analysis - The Sofia brand saw an increase in average transaction value to 23,679 yuan per order, up 22.36% year-on-year, despite a decrease in customer numbers [1] - The Milan brand experienced growth, with revenue of 3.67 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 14.87% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing the performance of its various brands, with the Milan brand showing particularly strong growth [1] Market Trends and Outlook - The home furnishing industry is experiencing a marginal recovery in consumer sentiment due to the implementation of home replacement policies [2] - The report anticipates that the concentration of the industry will accelerate, benefiting companies that comply with national subsidy policies [2]