2025 年 11 月 06 日 索菲亚(002572.SZ) 2025Q1-3 公司持续深化"多品牌、全品类、全渠道"战略，实现营业 收入 70.08 亿元，分渠道来看，1）整装渠道：25Q1-3 公司整装渠道 实现营业收入 13.93 亿元，同比下降 14.12%。其中，公司集成整装 事业部已合作装企数量 283 个，覆盖全国 221 个城市及区域，已上样 门店数量 728 家;零售整装业务已合作装企数量 2,473 个，覆盖全国 1,482 个市场及区域，已上样门店数量 2,375 家。2）海外渠道：通 过高端零售、工程项目和经销商等形式进行布局，目前已拥有 29 家 海外经销商，覆盖了加拿大，澳大利亚，阿联酋，越南，泰国等 23 个 国家/地区;同时，公司与优质海外开发商和承包商合作，为全世界 32 个国家/地区，约 132 个工程项目，提供一站式全屋定制解决方案。 费用率小幅提升，盈利水平逆势提升 盈利能力方面，25Q1-3 公司毛利率为 35.24%，同比下降 0.55pc t；25Q3 公司毛利率为 36.83%，同比增长 0.97pct。公司坚持以 "提质增效"为导向，进一步提升费用精细化管理 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that most sectors are at the bottom, suggesting opportunities for alpha layout [2] Core Viewpoints - The home furnishing sector is experiencing pressure in domestic sales, while export performance shows resilience. The overall revenue for the domestic home furnishing sector in Q1-Q3 2025 decreased by 0.96% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 23.80% [10][12] - In the paper packaging sector, upstream pulp mills are reducing supply due to profit pressures, while downstream paper demand is gradually recovering, leading to a stabilization in prices [2][10] - The personal care sector is facing challenges in online sales, but offline performance remains stable, with major companies adjusting their marketing strategies to improve profitability [2][10] - The new consumption sector, driven by IP and AI glasses, is showing growth potential, with companies like Pop Mart and Meta launching new products [2][10] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Domestic sales in Q3 2025 are under pressure, with revenue down 1.19% year-on-year and net profit down 15.79%. The external sales sector shows resilience with a 1.91% increase in revenue [10][12] - The performance of soft furniture companies is better than that of custom furniture companies, attributed to faster product iteration and successful online channel strategies [10][12] Paper Packaging - The paper sector is stabilizing, with net profit margins for pulp, waste paper, and specialty paper showing slight improvements. The packaging sector is experiencing stable growth, particularly in plastic and paper packaging [2][10] Personal Care - The sector is facing pressure from online competition, but offline sales remain steady. Major companies are focusing on brand and channel management to enhance profitability [2][10] New Consumption - The sector is driven by IP and AI glasses, with significant growth in emotional consumption. Companies are actively launching new products to capture market share [2][10]

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨索菲亚（002572.SZ） [Table_Title] 索菲亚 2025Q3 点评：Q3 收入降幅略收窄，毛 利率提升 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2025 年前三季度实现营收/归母净利润/扣非净利润 70.08/6.82/7.20 亿元，同比-8%/-26%/- 18%；其中 2025Q3 实现营收/归母净利润/扣非净利润 24.57/3.62/2.92 亿元，同比-10%/+1%/- 15%。行业磨底期公司维持高分红比例回报投资者，中长期持续推进多品牌、全品类、全渠道 战略。 [Table_scodeMsg2] 索菲亚（002572.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 索菲亚 2025Q3 2] 点评：Q3 收入降幅略收窄，毛 利率提升 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司2025年前三季度实现营收/归母净利润/扣非净利润70.08/6.82/7.20亿元，同比-8%/-26%/- 18%；其中 2025Q3 实现营收/归母净利润/ ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the robust growth momentum in various industries as China enters the fourth quarter of 2025, with the manufacturing production index reaching a six-month high of 51.9% in September. The home furnishing sector has shown significant recovery, with retail sales of furniture totaling 133.5 billion yuan from January to August, marking a 22.0% year-on-year increase [1][3]. Industry Overview - The home furnishing industry exemplifies the integration of manufacturing and consumption, with increasing consumer confidence driving market demand. The importance of industrial clusters is emphasized as key to market expansion and breakthroughs for manufacturing enterprises [1][3]. - The Chengdu-Chongzhou panel furniture industrial cluster has been officially recognized as a national-level industrial cluster, marking a significant milestone for the home furnishing sector in Sichuan [1][3]. Regional Development - Chongzhou, located in the western Chengdu Plain, has developed a comprehensive industrial scale over 30 years, characterized by a dual-engine driving mechanism involving local leading enterprises and external industry leaders. This has positioned Chongzhou as a significant player in the national furniture industry [3][4]. - The home furnishing industry in Chongzhou accounts for nearly 70% of Chengdu's revenue and almost half of Sichuan's, showcasing its structural advantages through resource integration and collaboration [4][6]. Technological Advancements - Chongzhou has embraced the "three transformations" of high-end, intelligent, and green development, with over 50 industrial 4.0 production lines established. This shift has significantly enhanced production efficiency and capacity [9][11]. - The region has also focused on green transformation, with initiatives leading to a 20% reduction in energy consumption and a 10% increase in resource utilization through the establishment of national-level green factories [12][14]. Market Expansion - Chongzhou's home furnishing industry is actively pursuing international markets, with a public brand "Tianfu Beautiful Home" launched to facilitate collective market expansion. The brand aims to enhance the visibility of Chongzhou's furniture products globally [15][17]. - The establishment of a cross-border e-commerce logistics supply chain center aims to reduce export costs by 30% and improve logistics efficiency by 50%, supporting the goal of increasing furniture exports significantly by 2028 [18][20].

21世纪经济报道记者 吴抒颖 家居企业陆续发布三季报，多数业绩增长放缓。 截至目前，索菲亚、欧派家居和志邦家居等企业均已经发布今年三季报。这些企业去年得益于补贴的加 持，业绩表现仍然在及格线上，但今年随着市场的变化，业绩普遍陷入停滞之中。 以欧派为例，根据欧派家居的三季报，报告期内，欧派家居实现营业收入49.73亿元，同比下降6.10%； 前三季度累计营业收入132.14亿元，同比下降4.79%。同时，三季度，欧派家居归母净利润为8.14亿 元，同比下滑21.79%；前三季度累计净利润18.32亿元，同比下降9.77%。 这是行业的普遍情况，但这些家居企业也在选择开辟新的增长曲线。索菲亚目前已拥有29家海外经销 商，业务覆盖32个国家和地区，完成132个海外工程项目；欧派家居销售网络更是覆盖全球146个国家和 地区，志邦家居的海外业务也在加速增长。 海外市场固然有增长的空间，但是在成熟市场与深耕当地的知名品牌竞争能否提振家居企业的业绩，则 仍是未知数。 业绩待提振 从三季报的情况来看，家居企业的业绩表现平淡。 索菲亚发布的今年三季报显示，其前三季实现营业收入70.08亿元，同比下滑8.46%；归母净利润6.8 ...

Market Overview - The home goods sector increased by 1.08% on October 31, with Rietter leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3954.79, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13378.21, down 1.14% [1] Top Performers - Rietter (002790) closed at 12.02, up 9.97% with a trading volume of 83,100 shares and a turnover of 99.91 million yuan [1] - Xidamen (605155) closed at 17.04, up 9.94% with a trading volume of 188,200 shares and a turnover of 316 million yuan [1] - Yuma Technology (300993) closed at 18.57, up 7.22% with a trading volume of 298,500 shares and a turnover of 542 million yuan [1] Underperformers - Marco Polo (001386) closed at 26.41, down 7.33% with a trading volume of 401,200 shares and a turnover of 1.071 billion yuan [2] - ST Yazhen (603389) closed at 44.65, down 5.00% with a trading volume of 51,400 shares and a turnover of 23.2 million yuan [2] - Meizhi Gao (920765) closed at 26.53, down 4.57% with a trading volume of 19,400 shares and a turnover of 52.47 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The home goods sector experienced a net outflow of 283 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 274 million yuan [2] - The top net inflows from retail investors were observed in Xidamen (605155) with 52.35 million yuan, and Rietter (002790) with 9.21 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][9] Core Views - The company's profit margin is under pressure, but there is an expectation for recovery in profitability in the second half of the year [3] - The company's brand matrix optimization provides clear positioning for future growth, demonstrating resilience despite industry pressures [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 7.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.46% - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 682 million yuan, down 26.05% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 720 million yuan, a decrease of 17.56% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.88%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 1.44% year-on-year to 362 million yuan [4] Business Segment Analysis - The main brand, Sophia, shows certain resilience with a revenue of 6.352 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 7.81% year-on-year [6] - The Milan brand reported revenue of 300 million yuan, down 18.43% year-on-year, while the overall revenue from the integrated channel was 1.393 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.12% year-on-year [6] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 35.24%, a decrease of 0.55 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 10.13%, down 2.54 percentage points year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2025, the gross margin improved to 36.83%, an increase of 0.97 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin rose to 15.32%, up 1.54 percentage points year-on-year [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.03 billion yuan, 1.24 billion yuan, and 1.33 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 9 [4][6]

Core Insights - Sophia reported a revenue of 7.008 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.46%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 682 million yuan, down 26.05% [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was 2.457 billion yuan, a decline of 9.88%, while net profit increased by 1.44% to 362 million yuan [1] Brand Performance - The Sophia brand has 1,793 city operators and 2,561 specialty stores, with 14.64% in provincial capitals, 20.58% in prefecture-level cities, and 64.78% in lower-tier cities. Revenue for the brand in the first nine months was 6.352 billion yuan, down 7.81% [1] - The Milan brand has 528 dealers and 556 specialty stores, with 7.01% in provincial capitals, 26.62% in prefecture-level cities, and 66.37% in lower-tier cities. Its revenue for the first nine months was 300 million yuan, down 18.43% [2] - The Simi brand has 132 dealers and 134 specialty stores, with 15.67% in provincial capitals, 34.33% in prefecture-level cities, and 50.00% in lower-tier cities. The brand is transitioning to a whole-home store strategy to enhance average transaction value [2] - The Huaher brand has 222 dealers and 270 specialty stores, generating 81 million yuan in revenue for the first nine months. Future plans include recruiting quality dealers and enhancing terminal capabilities [2] Channel Performance - In the first three quarters, Sophia's integrated channel generated 1.393 billion yuan in revenue, collaborating with 283 construction companies across 221 cities and regions, with 728 sample stores [2] - The retail integrated business has partnered with 2,473 construction companies, covering 1,482 markets and regions, with 2,375 sample stores [2] Financial Metrics - For Q3, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 362 million yuan, reflecting a 1.44% increase, while the net profit for the first nine months was 682 million yuan, down 26.05% [3] - The basic and diluted earnings per share for Q3 were 0.3760 yuan, up 1.43%, while for the first nine months, it was 0.7077 yuan, down 26.57% [3] - The weighted average return on equity was 5.16% for Q3, a slight increase of 0.09%, but down 3.95% to 9.23% for the first nine months [3] - Total assets at the end of the reporting period were approximately 13.744 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.05% from the previous year [3]

Group 1: Macro and Market Insights - The report outlines three quantitative indicators from the "14th Five-Year Plan" that provide a clear roadmap for economic development over the next five years: steady improvement in total factor productivity, significant increase in household consumption rate, and maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range [1] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to continue strong performance, with a monthly stock selection for November 2025 including companies like Sunking Electronics and Tencent Holdings [1] Group 2: High-end Manufacturing Industry - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a breakthrough year for humanoid robots, with strong optimism for the humanoid robot industry [2] - The liquid cooling industry is expected to see increased penetration driven by improvements in power density and reductions in PUE [2] - The PCB equipment industry is projected to maintain high prosperity as manufacturers accelerate the expansion of high-end PCB capacity [2] - Solid-state battery materials are seeing continuous R&D achievements, with equipment orders expected to increase due to market demand [2] - Recommendations include companies like Ampere Dragon and Giant Star Technology [2] Group 3: Non-ferrous Metals Industry - In Q3 2025, the proportion of non-ferrous metal heavy stocks held by active equity funds increased to 5.72%, with notable increases in copper and tin holdings [3] - Investment suggestions highlight that supply supports price increases for copper, aluminum, and rare earths, while precious metals benefit from a weakened US dollar and a rate cut cycle [3] - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Western Mining [3] Group 4: Banking Sector Insights - China Merchants Bank reported a steady increase in net interest income and a significant rise in wealth management income, with a revenue growth rate improving by 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] - Qingdao Bank achieved a revenue of 11 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a 5% year-on-year increase, with a net profit growth of 15.5% [6] - Jiangyin Bank's revenue reached 3.2 billion yuan, growing by 6.2% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 13.4% [7] - China Bank's revenue growth was 2.7%, with a positive trend in profitability and asset quality [8] - Chengdu Bank reported a revenue of 17.8 billion yuan, a 3% increase, with a net profit growth of 5% [9] Group 5: Chemical and Petrochemical Sector - Jiufeng Energy's Q3 performance was impacted by short-term disturbances, leading to a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [10] - Yangnong Chemical reported steady growth in pesticide raw material sales, with a positive outlook for the industry [11] - Satellite Chemical's profit forecasts were adjusted downward due to rising ethane prices, but the company is expected to maintain growth [12] Group 6: Food and Beverage Sector - Ganyuan Foods reported a revenue of 1.533 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a decrease of 4.53% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit [22] - Lihai Foods showed strong sales momentum in core customers, with a bright outlook for its cream business [23] - Haitian Flavor Industry achieved a revenue of 21.63 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a slight adjustment in profit forecasts [24] - Yanjinpuzi reported a revenue increase of 14.67% year-on-year, with a notable rise in net profit [25] Group 7: Home Appliance and New Energy Sector - Shun'an Environment is transitioning from a leader in refrigeration components to a benchmark in refrigeration and new energy vehicle thermal management components, with a target price set at 20.39 yuan [21]

Group 1: Shun'an Environment (盾安环境) - Shun'an is transitioning from a leader in refrigeration components to a benchmark in refrigeration and new energy vehicle thermal management components, showcasing strong growth potential and low valuation levels [4] - By the end of 2024, Shun'an's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 34% of that of Sanhua, while its market capitalization is only 13% of Sanhua's [4] Group 2: Qingdao Bank (青岛银行) - Qingdao Bank reported a revenue of 11 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4 billion, up 15.5% year-on-year [5] - The bank's return on average equity (ROAE) stands at 13.16%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong profitability [5] Group 3: Satellite Chemical (卫星化学) - Satellite Chemical achieved a revenue of 34.77 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, with a net profit of 3.76 billion, up 1.7% year-on-year [6] - In Q3 alone, the company reported a revenue of 11.31 billion, a decrease of 12.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.01 billion, down 38% year-on-year [6] Group 4: Sophia (索菲亚) - Sophia's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 7.01 billion, a decrease of 8.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 680 million, down 26% year-on-year [5][6] - The quarterly breakdown shows revenues of 2.04 billion, 2.51 billion, and 2.46 billion for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, with a notable decline in Q1 and Q2 [6] Group 5: Weixing Co. (伟星股份) - Weixing Co. reported a revenue of 3.63 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with a net profit of 580 million, down 6.5% year-on-year [7] - The company experienced a positive trend in Q3 with revenue and net profit increasing by 1% and 3% year-on-year, respectively [7] Group 6: New Oriental (新东方) - New Oriental's FY26 Q1 net revenue was 1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a net profit of 240,700, down 1.9% year-on-year [8] - The core business showed steady growth, and Q2 revenue guidance indicates acceleration [8] Group 7: Yanjinpuzi (盐津铺子) - Yanjinpuzi reported a revenue of 1.833 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 8.98% year-on-year, with a net profit of 754 million, down 25.22% year-on-year [9] - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 753 million, a decline of 9.94% year-on-year, and a net profit of 354 million, down 22.60% year-on-year [9]