证券研究报告 | 2025年08月19日 轻工制造行业周报（25 年第 33 周） 优于大市 箱板瓦楞纸延续涨势，7 月美国家具零售额同比+5.1% 本周研究跟踪与投资思考：近期阔叶浆内盘价格小幅上扬，文化纸与白卡纸 受供需影响仍承压，但废纸系提价意愿坚挺，价格延续涨势；7 月我国家具 类出口额同比+3.0%，美国家具销售额同比+5.1%，中美对等关税及反制再延 90 天，叠加美国降息渐近及海外大促备货需求，关注出口链修复。 近期阔叶浆国内价格上扬，废纸系价格延续涨势。浆纸系，截至 8 月 15 日， 国内阔叶浆市场价较 7 月+109 元/吨，主要系 Bracell、Suzano 等国际宣布 浆厂减产、转产以及外盘报涨 20 美元/吨影响。文化纸与白卡纸受供需影响 价格仍在下跌，下游需求表现相对平淡，且上半年玖龙、仙鹤等合计释放新 产能约 115 万吨；8 月以来社会白卡价格进一步下跌，尽管近期有上游成本 与中秋订单利好支撑，但 7 月 22 日联盛浆纸 120 万吨新项目产能释放与河 南停机纸厂复产在供给端对纸价形成压力。废纸系，8 月以来废纸与箱板瓦 楞纸价格延续涨势，近期受益于反内卷与龙头提价意愿坚挺 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant shift in China's consumption structure from goods to services, with per capita service consumption expected to reach 46.1% of total consumption by 2024, contributing 63% to the growth of consumer spending [2] - The establishment of the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway Company marks the beginning of a major infrastructure project that is expected to enhance regional economic collaboration and reduce logistics costs, with an estimated investment of around 500 billion yuan [7][8] - The report emphasizes the positive impact of major infrastructure projects on China's economic stability and growth, particularly in the context of external uncertainties [9][10] Economic News - The Ministry of Commerce indicates a rapid transition in China's consumption structure, with service consumption growing at an annual rate of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024 [2] - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a one-year "dual interest subsidy" policy aimed at boosting consumer loans for various sectors, including automotive and healthcare [2] - The People's Bank of China is encouraging increased credit support for the service consumption sector to ensure effective policy implementation [4] Company Insights - Alibaba Health has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Innovent Biologics to enhance supply chain solutions for cold-chain delivery of specific medications [5] - Didi has recently invested in a driverless commercial vehicle company, indicating a strategic move towards autonomous transportation [5] - Jiangfeng Electronics is planning to integrate its flat panel display target material business with Japan's Aifuka Corporation, showcasing international collaboration [5] Infrastructure Projects - The Xinjiang-Tibet Railway is expected to significantly lower logistics costs and enhance economic cooperation between regions, with a construction period projected to exceed 20 years [8][9] - The report outlines that the construction of the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway will provide a safety net for China's economy against external uncertainties, contributing approximately 0.18% to GDP growth annually [8][9] - Other major infrastructure projects are also set to commence, which will serve as important engines for domestic demand and economic stability [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading companies in the construction and materials sector will benefit significantly from the Xinjiang-Tibet Railway project, including major state-owned enterprises [9] - It emphasizes that the implementation of major projects will not only yield long-term benefits but also stabilize the economy amid external challenges [11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the IP toy sector, paper industry, and home furnishing sector, highlighting specific companies to watch [2][4][17]. Core Insights - The IP toy market continues to thrive, with Sanrio's FY26Q1 performance exceeding expectations, driven by strong IP character sales, particularly Hello Kitty, across various regions [2][4]. - The paper industry is entering a peak demand season in Q3, with expectations for price stabilization and potential upward movement due to supply-side improvements [14][15]. - The home furnishing sector is poised for recovery as Beijing relaxes housing purchase restrictions, which may enhance valuation and stimulate demand [17][19]. Summary by Sections 1. IP Toy Sector - Sanrio's FY26Q1 revenue reached 431 billion JPY, a 49% year-on-year increase, with operating profit up 88% and net profit up 38%, attributed to strong IP character performance [2][4]. - Companies such as Morning Glory, Chuangyuan, Chaohongji, Guobo, and Blucor are highlighted for their innovative IP collaborations and product launches [2][4][6][9][10]. 2. Paper Industry - The report notes that Q3 demand is gradually increasing, with expectations for paper prices to stabilize and potentially rise, supported by reduced production from overseas suppliers [14][15]. - Key companies to monitor include Sun Paper, Nine Dragons, and Bohui Paper, as they are positioned to benefit from the improving supply-demand dynamics [14][15]. 3. Home Furnishing Sector - The easing of purchase restrictions in Beijing is expected to boost the home furnishing sector, with companies like Sophia, Oppein, Gujia, and others identified as having strong dividend safety margins [17][19][23]. - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in the home furnishing sector, driven by improved consumer confidence and demand from the secondary housing market [19][23].

Macro and Strategy Research - In July 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a shift from a year-on-year increase to stability, with a month-on-month increase driven by summer travel demand and improved consumption policies [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing of the decline in July 2025, with international pricing of oil and non-ferrous metals rising, while domestic production material prices remained weak due to adverse weather conditions [3][4] Industry Research - The price of corrugated paper has increased, with leading companies like Nine Dragons Paper raising prices, which has led to downstream companies issuing price increase notices for cardboard [6][7] - Beijing has optimized its housing purchase restrictions, allowing eligible families to buy multiple properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, which is expected to positively impact the home goods sector [8] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.34 percentage points, while the textile and apparel sector outperformed by 3.00 percentage points during the week of August 4 to August 8 [7] - The corrugated paper price rose by 50 yuan per ton from August 1 to August 8, indicating a positive trend in the packaging paper market as demand increases in the second half of the year [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - Suzano announced a price increase of $20 per ton for commodity pulp in the Asian market for August, indicating a potential recovery in pulp and paper prices from current cyclical lows [2][4] - The report highlights the ongoing price adjustments in the paper industry, with various paper types experiencing different price movements, suggesting a recovery trend driven by supply-demand dynamics [4][50] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy catalysts in the home furnishing sector, particularly in light of recent housing policy optimizations in Beijing [4][31] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Recent policy changes in Beijing allow families to purchase multiple properties outside the city center, which is expected to stimulate the housing market [4][31] - Major home furnishing companies are currently valued at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities as market sentiment improves [4][31] Paper Industry - As of August 8, 2025, various paper prices are reported: double glue paper at 4993.75 CNY/ton (unchanged), copper plate paper at 5320 CNY/ton (unchanged), white card paper at 3955 CNY/ton (down 35 CNY/ton), box board paper at 3463.4 CNY/ton (up 12.8 CNY/ton), and corrugated paper at 2582.5 CNY/ton (up 46.25 CNY/ton) [4][50] - The report notes that the current pulp and paper prices are at cyclical lows, with expectations for a rebound due to supply-demand imbalances [4][50] Consumer Goods - The report discusses the launch of new health-focused products in the personal care sector, indicating a shift towards higher quality and compliance with health standards [4][6] - The collaboration between Morning Glory stationery and popular anime IPs is expected to enhance brand visibility and sales [4][6] Export Chain - In July, China's total exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN countries [4][6] - The report suggests that the ongoing shift of production capacity to Southeast Asia may enhance the long-term competitiveness of companies with overseas supply chain layouts [4][6] Packaging - New regulations in Shanghai aimed at reducing single-use plastics are expected to drive demand for recyclable and biodegradable packaging solutions [4][6] - The report recommends companies involved in eco-friendly packaging solutions as potential investment opportunities [4][6] New Tobacco Products - The introduction of new electronic cigarette products in the UK is anticipated to boost market share for refillable devices [4][6] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the new tobacco sector, particularly for companies with strong partnerships and product offerings [4][6] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector has shown resilience, with notable increases in revenue for key players despite some challenges [4][6] - The report identifies leading companies in the apparel sector as potential investment opportunities based on their performance [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [2][43] - The report recommends "Buy" ratings for specific companies: Oppein Home (603833), Sophia (002572), Explorer (300005), Semir Apparel (002563), Guibao Pet (301498), and Zhongchong Co. (002891) [2][45] Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the third batch of national subsidies, which is expected to stimulate demand for furniture products and stabilize domestic sales growth for the year [2][42] - The "anti-involution" sentiment has positively influenced the paper industry, with corrugated board prices rising by 5.07% from July 1 to July 25, 2025 [2][41] - The report notes that major paper companies are set to increase prices for corrugated paper and recycled cardboard, which may help boost packaging paper prices [2][41] Industry News - Eldorado and Suzano signed an unprecedented cooperation agreement involving the exchange of "standing timber" for pulp production [8] - Puma forecasts a loss in 2025, with sales expected to decline by over 10% due to weak sales and tariff impacts [8] Company Announcements - Yuanfei Pet plans to implement a stock incentive plan for 62 employees, involving 2.5095 million shares [33] - Rebecca reported a more than 15% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by growth in cross-border e-commerce [33] Market Review - From July 21 to July 25, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.15 percentage points, with notable performances in the paper sector [34] - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.24 percentage points, with some stocks facing pressure after previous gains [38]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on various sectors, indicating a stable recovery in the home furnishing and paper packaging sectors, while new tobacco and packaging sectors show robust growth [3][4]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to see marginal improvement in domestic demand due to government support for consumption upgrades, with a focus on companies with high dividend yields and growth certainty for 2025 [5][10]. - The new tobacco sector is experiencing growth, particularly in heated tobacco products (HTP), with significant sales increases reported in Europe and a growing user base for IQOS [11]. - The paper packaging sector is facing a gradual recovery in pulp prices, with a focus on companies that maintain strong market positions and high dividends [12]. - The light consumer goods and pet food sectors are under pressure, but there are opportunities in innovative product launches and channel expansion [15]. - The two-wheeler sector is poised for a rebound with government subsidies and new standards expected to drive demand [16][17]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - Domestic sales are expected to improve due to government initiatives, with a focus on companies with strong growth prospects and high dividends [5][10]. - Export figures show a slight increase in June, but a cumulative decline for the first half of the year [10]. New Tobacco - HNB sales increased by 10.5% year-on-year, with a growing user base for IQOS [11]. - The regulatory environment in the U.S. is tightening, which may benefit compliant market players [11]. Paper Packaging - Pulp prices have shown slight increases, but overall market conditions remain challenging [12]. - Companies with strong market positions and dividend policies are recommended for investment [12]. Light Consumer Goods & Pet Food - The sector is facing challenges, but there are opportunities in new product launches and expanding distribution channels [15]. - Online sales data indicates mixed performance across different product categories [23]. Two-Wheeler - The sector is expected to benefit from government subsidies and new regulations, with a focus on companies that can leverage these changes for growth [16][17]. - Recent data shows a significant number of electric bikes being replaced under the subsidy program [26][27].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and holdings of the Ping An Low Carbon Economy Mixed A fund, which has shown positive growth in recent months and has a significant portion of its assets allocated to top-performing stocks [1][3]. - As of July 23, 2025, the latest net value of the Ping An Low Carbon Economy Mixed A fund is 1.0878 yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.04%. The fund has achieved a return of 5.83% over the past month, 18.07% over the past six months, and 17.20% year-to-date [1]. - The fund's top ten stock holdings account for a total of 68.78%, with notable investments in companies such as Gigabyte (9.02%), Gree Electric Appliances (8.50%), and Xpeng Motors (8.33%) [1]. Group 2 - The Ping An Low Carbon Economy Mixed A fund was established on August 10, 2020, and as of June 30, 2025, it has a total scale of 1.427 billion yuan, managed by fund manager He Jie [1]. - He Jie has a background in finance, holding a master's degree from the University of Augsburg in Germany, and has held various positions in investment management and research prior to joining Ping An Fund Management Company in August 2021 [2].

关于全资子公司参与投资设立的产业基金 证券代码：002572 证券简称：索菲亚 公告编号：2025-030 索菲亚家居股份有限公司 进行清算的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、基金基本情况 统一社会信用代码：91110101330227283E 执行事务合伙人：中居和家（北京）投资基金管理有限公司 经营范围：投资管理；资产管理；项目投资。 2018年3月，索菲亚家居股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）全资子公司广 州索菲亚投资有限公司（以下简称"索菲亚投资"，曾用名"深圳索菲亚投资管 理有限公司"），作为有限合伙人参与投资了北京居然之家联合投资管理中心（有 限合伙）（以下简称"联合投资基金"）。联合投资基金的存续期为五年，其中 投资期三年。具体情况详见2018年3月27日在巨潮资讯网刊登的《关于全资子公 司参与投资产业基金的公告》（公告编号:2018-018）。 2022年9月，根据产业基金的实际运作情况以及对外投资项目的需要，基金管 理人中居和家（北京）投资基金管理有限公司提请延长产业基金的期限。经全体 合伙人协商一致同意延长产业基金期限 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light industry and paper-making sector for the mid-2025 earnings forecast, indicating a favorable investment rating for these industries [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in performance within the export sector for Q2 2025, with companies that have a global supply chain showing resilience against external tariff disruptions. Notable performers include Jiangxin Home, Jiayi Co., and Tianzhen Co. [4][5]. - The two-wheeler segment is expected to benefit from government subsidies and new standards, with companies like Yadi Holdings and Aima Technology showing strong growth potential [4]. - The light consumer goods sector is characterized by a robust domestic demand, particularly in personal care products, with companies like Baiya Co. and Dengkang Oral Care expected to perform well [4]. - The packaging industry is undergoing consolidation, with leading companies experiencing a slowdown in capital expenditure, indicating a shift towards a harvest phase [4]. - The home furnishing sector is facing short-term order impacts due to the pause in government subsidies, but long-term growth is anticipated through market integration and new product categories [4]. - The paper-making sector is expected to see stable profitability due to low raw material costs and improved supply-demand dynamics [4]. Summary by Sections Export Sector - Q2 2025 shows performance divergence due to increased external disruptions, with companies like Jiangxin Home expected to see a 40%+ growth in net profit [5][6]. - Jiayi Co. anticipates a 30%+ revenue increase, while Tianzhen Co. is expected to recover orders significantly [4][5]. Two-Wheeler Sector - Companies like Aima Technology and Ninebot are projected to grow by 20% and 50% respectively in Q2 2025, driven by new product launches and market demand [8][9]. Light Consumer Goods - The sector is expected to show resilience, with companies like Chaohongji and Baiya Co. projected to grow by 20% and 2% respectively in revenue [10][11]. Packaging Industry - The report notes a continued consolidation trend, with companies like Yutong Technology and Baosteel Packaging expected to maintain stable revenue growth [12][14]. Home Furnishing Sector - The sector is facing challenges due to subsidy pauses, but companies like Mousse and Zhizhong Home are expected to adapt and show growth in the long term [13][15]. Paper-Making Sector - The report indicates stable profitability for the paper-making sector, with companies like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology expected to benefit from improved market conditions [17].