存量房装修超新房，市场重心大转移 存量市场的潜力尚待深度挖掘，尤其近几年来，政策大力支持城市更新和老旧小区改造。其中，城市更新自2021年写入政府工作报告后，2025年被再次强 调"持续推进城市更新和城镇老旧小区改造"，反映出高层的重视与支持。 此外，城市更新和老旧小区改造被视为推动内需的重要抓手。在新一轮经济增长周期和美国对等关税背景下，内需领域将发挥更大的导向作用。 目前，我国存量房规模庞大，大量房屋进入高龄阶段。据住建部数据，截至2022年底，我国城镇既有房屋超30年楼龄占比接近20%，预计2040年前后将攀升 至80%。中信证券测算，截至2024年已建成25年以上的高龄房屋面积近175亿平米。 在政策指导和旧房改造需求的双轮驱动下，家装市场重心正向存量市场和旧房改造转移。奥维云网数据显示，2024年家装市场涉及的各类住宅中，新房装修 723.2万套，存量房装修777.5万套，二手房装修440.4万套，意味着存量房装修套数已经超越新房，存量房流量转化成为影响家装市场未来走向的核心变量。 截至2024年的存量房装修市场预计为1.5万亿元。 面对旧房改造、城市更新的万亿新蓝海，从欧派家居的青岚小筑、金牌家居 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to consumer needs and aims to enhance its product and service advantages through various strategies [1] Group 1: Product and Service Advantages - The company leads the industry with its environmentally friendly standards centered around the Kangchun board, which has formaldehyde emissions significantly lower than the ENF-level new national standard and has received multiple international certifications [1] - Leveraging 40 years of customization experience and international design resources, the company offers diverse styles, personalized customization solutions, and efficient design services [1] - The company has established a 4.0 smart manufacturing factory and eight major bases nationwide, achieving a short delivery cycle of 7-12 days and transparent production services [1] - A multi-brand matrix allows the company to accurately cover different consumer tiers and niche markets, creating category synergy advantages [1] Group 2: Future Focus - The company plans to continue focusing on environmental upgrades, design innovation, and manufacturing efficiency improvements to strengthen and enhance product competitiveness [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively engaged in the continuous development and transformation of its digital intelligence systems, leveraging advanced technologies to enhance operational efficiency and consumer experience [2] Group 1: Digital Transformation - The company has been focusing on the research and development of digital intelligence systems [2] - Upgrades and transformations are being implemented across design software, digital operation platforms, and service systems [2] - The aim is to improve work efficiency and accuracy while meeting personalized service demands of consumers [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the smart glasses and smart home sectors, as well as for the paper industry, personal care, pet products, and export-oriented companies [5][6][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a large-scale equipment update and a consumption upgrade policy for smart glasses and smart home products, which is expected to accelerate market penetration and benefit quality suppliers [6][7]. - The paper industry is projected to see a supply-demand improvement, with a focus on the potential impact of anti-involution policies and marginal demand changes contributing to cyclical elasticity [8][9]. - The personal care sector is recommended for bottom-fishing opportunities, with specific companies identified for their growth potential [11]. - The pet products sector is noted for its growth trajectory and global expansion, with strong recommendations for specific companies [13]. - The export market is expected to benefit from a potential U.S. interest rate cut, which may stimulate furniture consumption and enhance the competitive landscape for Chinese companies [14][15]. Summary by Sections Smart Glasses and Smart Home - The introduction of subsidies for smart glasses is expected to lower consumer costs and enhance market penetration, with major manufacturers launching new AI glasses products [6][7]. - Smart home products are also included in the subsidy program, with various categories expected to benefit from consumer incentives [7]. Paper Industry - The report outlines a new investment strategy for the paper industry, emphasizing the integration of wood pulp and paper production, with a focus on improving supply-demand dynamics [8][9]. - Specific segments such as cultural paper and boxboard are highlighted for their unique supply-demand characteristics, with recommendations for companies that exhibit strong performance in these areas [10]. Personal Care - Companies like Baiya, Dengkang Oral Care, and Zhongshun Jierou are identified as key players in the personal care sector, with strategies focused on national expansion and product upgrades [11][12]. Pet Products - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the pet products sector, recommending companies like Yiyi and Yuanfei Pet for their strong domestic and international performance [13]. Export Market - The report notes that U.S. interest rate cuts could boost furniture consumption, with a focus on companies like Xiangxin Home, Yongyi, and Jiayi for their export capabilities [14][15]. High Dividend Safety Margin Assets - The report identifies several companies in the packaging and home furnishing sectors with stable dividend yields and strong market positions, including Yongxin, Yutong Technology, and Huawang Technology [18][19][20].

行 业 及 产 业 轻工制造 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 庞盈盈 A0230522060003 pangyy@swsresearch.com 屠亦婷 A0230512080003 tuyt@swsresearch.com 黄莎 A0230522010002 huangsha@swsresearch.com 张海涛 A0230524080003 zhanght@swsresearch.com 张文静 A0230524120005 zhangwj@swsresearch.com 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 联系人 魏雨辰 A0230525010001 weiyc@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 08 日 智能眼镜首次纳入国补；关注造纸 策略、京东工业、伟易达深度报告 看好 —— 造纸轻工周报 2025/12/29-2026/01/03 本期投资提示： 【顾家家居】【慕思股份】【欧派家居】【索菲亚】 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 相关 ...

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