FOTON(SH:600166) Haitong Securities·2024-11-07 06:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 35.76 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 430 million yuan, down 45.2% year-on-year [5]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 11.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.3% [5]. - The performance in Q3 was impacted by the heavy truck industry's downturn, with domestic heavy truck sales dropping 18% year-on-year [5]. - The growth in the new energy commercial vehicle sector is notable, with the company selling nearly 20,000 new energy light trucks, a year-on-year increase of over 40% [6]. - The company is actively expanding its smart driving capabilities, with L2++ automated driving trucks in production and L4 level automated buses undergoing passenger testing [6]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 55.758 billion yuan, 61.961 billion yuan, and 66.213 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][10]. - The expected net profits for the same years are 759 million yuan, 1.432 billion yuan, and 1.769 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.10, 0.18, and 0.22 yuan [7][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 11.9% in 2024 to 12.6% in 2026 [10]. - The company’s valuation is estimated at 16-18 times PE for 2025, corresponding to a fair value range of 2.89 to 3.26 yuan per share [7].