锦浪科技：Q3经营趋势平稳，等待订单需求拐点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.162 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.21%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 669 million yuan, a decrease of 11% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the revenue was 1.807 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 29.92% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.74%. The net profit for Q3 was 317 million yuan, up 154.7% year-on-year but down 4.61% quarter-on-quarter [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The inverter business is expected to see a quarter-on-quarter increase in sales of grid-connected and energy storage inverters, primarily driven by growth in overseas markets such as Africa and Latin America. The average selling price of grid-connected products has decreased, leading to a slight decline in revenue. The gross margin for inverters in Q3 is anticipated to be slightly better than Q2 due to the ongoing digestion of high-priced inventory [5]. - The power station business is expected to maintain a relatively high revenue level in Q3, benefiting from the peak generation season. This segment is projected to contribute a certain level of profit [5]. Financial Data - The company reported a Q3 expense ratio of 19.2%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to a significant drop in management expenses, which reached a historical low of 1.8%. The operating cash flow for Q3 was 810 million yuan, a 35% increase quarter-on-quarter, marking a historical high. Contract liabilities at the end of Q3 stood at 7.2 million yuan, remaining stable for three consecutive quarters. Additionally, the company recorded an asset impairment loss of 4.55 million yuan, primarily due to inventory write-downs [5]. - Looking ahead, the inverter business is expected to maintain a positive operational trend, with significant growth in orders from the African and Latin American markets since Q2. The demand for household storage in Europe is also improving, and channel inventory is expected to return to normal by next year, with potential for demand growth exceeding expectations in 2025. The power station business is also expected to provide solid profit support [5][6]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1 billion yuan and 1.4 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 29 and 21 times [6].