百润股份：Q3收入承压，期待威士忌新品

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential price increase of over 20% relative to the market index in the next six months [13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.39 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 570 million yuan, down 13.7% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue was 760 million yuan, a decline of 6% year-on-year, and net profit was 170 million yuan, down 24% year-on-year [2][3]. - The cocktail business generated 2.1 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters, a decrease of 3.1%, with a net profit of 400 million yuan. In Q3 2024, revenue was 670 million yuan, down 6.6% [2][3]. - The company is preparing to launch new whiskey products in 2025, which is expected to enhance its product portfolio and market presence [2][3]. Financial Performance - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is 740 million yuan, 840 million yuan, and 930 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.71 yuan, 0.80 yuan, and 0.89 yuan, leading to dynamic PE ratios of 36x, 31x, and 28x [1][3]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 70.1%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 23.9%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [3][6]. - The company aims to enhance its cocktail product matrix and expand its market share in the whiskey segment, leveraging its distillation technology [3][6]. Business Segments - The pre-mixed cocktail segment is expected to see a sales growth rate of -6% in 2024, followed by 8% and 6% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a gross margin forecasted to improve gradually [6][7]. - The flavor and fragrance business is projected to grow at 4% in 2024, with a gross margin of 69.2%, and is recognized as a leader in the domestic market [6][7].