景津装备：业绩短期承压，现金流明显好转

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the stock [2] Core Views - Revenue remained stable but short-term performance was under pressure In Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 15 07, 16 20, and 15 77 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2 66%, 2 04%, and -0 98% Net profit attributable to the parent company was 2 29, 2 30, and 2 06 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 6 70%, -13 16%, and -20 77% [3] - Gross margin and expense ratio both declined The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 3 67 percentage points to 29 06%, with Q3 gross margin dropping by 4 94 percentage points to 28 36% The expense ratio for the same period decreased by 1 38 percentage points to 8 94% [3] - Cash flow improved significantly, and dividend payout ratio increased The net cash flow from operating activities for Q1-Q3 2024 was 5 89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 492 66% The dividend yield exceeded 5 6% based on the 2023 cash dividend of 6 1 billion yuan and the total market value of 107 6 billion yuan as of November 6 [3] - Complete equipment is expected to become a new growth point, with continued expansion in domestic and international markets The company is committed to developing into a world-leading manufacturer of filtration complete equipment [3] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts For 2024-2026, the company's revenue is expected to be 62 58, 66 84, and 72 66 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0 14%, 6 81%, and 8 70% Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 8 88, 9 58, and 10 64 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -11 90%, 7 91%, and 10 99% [3][5] - Valuation metrics The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 12 11, 11 22, and 10 11 times respectively [3][5] Financial Ratios and Key Metrics - Profitability Gross margin for 2024-2026 is expected to be around 29 0%, with net margin at 14 2%, 14 3%, and 14 6% respectively ROE is forecasted to be 18 4%, 18 6%, and 19 3% for the same period [6] - Debt and liquidity The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to remain stable at around 47 4% to 48 1% from 2024 to 2026 The current ratio is forecasted to be between 1 47 and 1 54 [6] - Operational efficiency The accounts receivable turnover ratio is expected to be around 8 0, while inventory turnover is forecasted to be between 1 55 and 1 60 [6]