TOPSUN(002779) 中邮证券·2024-11-07 07:16Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the stock, indicating an expected relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within 6 months [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was under short-term pressure due to increased expenses, but operational profits would have shown positive growth if these expenses were excluded [3] - The company is actively expanding its global presence, particularly in the North American market, with over 90% of its main business, garden machinery, being exported [3] - The company is entering the intelligent robotics sector, which is expected to become its second growth curve, with significant investments in R&D and new product development [3] Financial Performance - In 2024 Q3, the company reported revenue of 144 million yuan, a 19.66% YoY increase, but a net loss of 5 million yuan, compared to a profit in the same period last year [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 621 million yuan, a 31.38% YoY increase, but net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 19.40% to 40 million yuan [3] - The company's sales expenses increased by 4 million yuan and R&D expenses increased by 14 million yuan in Q3 2024, totaling an additional 18 million yuan in expenses [3] Market Expansion and Product Development - The company has established strong partnerships with major North American retailers and online platforms such as Homedepot, Lowes, Tsc, and Amazon [3] - The company invested in 1X, a global humanoid robotics company, and its subsidiary Jiangsu Jianmi released a quadruped robot P1, targeting inspection, exploration, and security scenarios [3] - Another subsidiary, Shanghai Gaoke, is developing an intelligent lawn mowing robot, which represents an upgrade of the company's main garden machinery products [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 892 million yuan, 1.276 billion yuan, and 1.719 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 33.84%, 43.00%, and 34.70% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 58.32 million yuan, 99.18 million yuan, and 154.65 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with YoY growth rates of 21.27%, 70.05%, and 55.93% [4] - The company's PE ratios are forecasted to be 109.22, 64.23, and 41.19 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 24% from 2024 to 2026 [8] - ROE is projected to increase from 6.9% in 2023 to 17.2% in 2026, indicating improving profitability [8] - The company's asset-liability ratio is expected to rise from 28.4% in 2023 to 43.4% in 2026, reflecting increased leverage [8] Valuation - The company's PE ratio is currently 132.97, with a market capitalization of 6.4 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 5.7 billion yuan [1] - The stock's 52-week high and low prices are 48.52 yuan and 20.38 yuan, respectively [1]