C&D INC.(600153) 光大证券·2024-11-07 07:59Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its strong position in the domestic bulk supply chain management industry and its potential for further strengthening through internationalization and digitalization [4] Core Views - The company's supply chain operations showed improved profitability in Q3 2024, with revenue increasing by 7.21% QoQ and net profit attributable to the parent company growing by 26.87% QoQ [2] - However, the real estate and home furnishing mall operations experienced a decline in profitability, with the home furnishing mall segment reporting a net loss of 567 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The company's overall performance fell short of expectations due to weak terminal demand and declining profits in its real estate and home furnishing mall businesses [4] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 502.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.13%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.058 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 83.43% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 183.122 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.94%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 859 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 91.81% but a QoQ increase of 44.44% [1] - The company's real estate business revenue increased by 26.03% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024, but net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 19.04% YoY [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report revised downward the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 3.054 billion yuan, 4.102 billion yuan, and 4.867 billion yuan, respectively, from previous estimates of 6.171 billion yuan, 6.986 billion yuan, and 7.972 billion yuan [4] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 10, 7, and 6 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, while the P/B ratio is expected to remain at 0.4 for all three years [6] Business Segment Analysis - The supply chain operations segment achieved revenue of 1.511 trillion yuan in Q3 2024, with a gross margin of 1.5%, down 0.6 percentage points QoQ due to weak terminal demand and declining commodity prices [2] - The real estate segment contributed a net loss of 373 million yuan to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to a 664 million yuan inventory impairment provision [3] - The home furnishing mall segment reported a net loss of 567 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by declining occupancy rates and increased merchant retention incentives [3]