睿智投资|博瑞医药 (688166 CH) - 双靶点GLP1/GIP 创新药未来可期;首予买入

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 44.21 CNY [4] Core Insights - The company has experienced stable growth in its raw materials and formulations business, achieving a revenue of 1.18 billion CNY in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 15.9% [1] - The company is focusing on complex formulations and innovative drugs, with R&D expenses reaching 249 million CNY in 2023, a 20.1% increase, accounting for 21.1% of revenue [2] - The innovative drug BGM0504 has shown promising results in clinical trials, with a significant weight loss of 18.5% in the 15mg dosage group during the second phase of clinical trials [3] Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The company reported a revenue of 1.18 billion CNY in 2023, with a 15.9% year-on-year growth, and a revenue of 977 million CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a 6.8% increase [1] - The revenue from formulation products reached 110 million CNY in the first half of 2024, marking a 30.4% increase, with formulation products accounting for 17.9% of total sales [1] R&D Focus - The company is prioritizing R&D in inhalation agents and GLP-1 class drugs, with 53.0% of R&D expenses directed towards innovative drugs and inhalation formulations in the first half of 2024, a 105.3% increase year-on-year [2] Clinical Development - BGM0504, a dual agonist for GLP-1/GIP, is in the first tier of domestic formulations, with a 2.76% reduction in HbA1c levels observed in diabetes patients during the second phase of clinical trials [3] - The company has initiated the third phase of clinical trials for BGM0504 for weight loss, with IND approval obtained in the U.S. [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow steadily, with expected increases of 9.6%, 11.5%, and 14.5% from 2024 to 2026, reaching 1.29 billion CNY, 1.44 billion CNY, and 1.65 billion CNY respectively [4] - Net profit is forecasted to be 200 million CNY, 230 million CNY, and 290 million CNY for the same period, with growth rates of 13.7%, 16.3%, and 27.9% respectively [4]