CYTS(600138) 财通证券·2024-11-07 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 7.048 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.65%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 153 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.77% [3] - The company's scenic spot business is under pressure, with Wuzhen receiving 5.9934 million visitors, a year-on-year decrease of 2.68%, and Gubei Water Town receiving 1.0025 million visitors, a year-on-year decrease of 10.55% [4] - The exhibition business saw significant profit growth, and the travel agency business benefited from the recovery of outbound tourism [5] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 10.375 billion yuan, 11.908 billion yuan, and 12.877 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 191 million yuan, 228 million yuan, and 263 million yuan [6] - The PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 39.4x, 32.9x, and 28.5x, respectively [6] - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 7.68%, 14.77%, and 8.14%, respectively [7] - Net profit growth rates for 2024-2026 are expected to be -1.79%, 19.51%, and 15.52%, respectively [7] Business Segment Analysis - Wuzhen Scenic Area generated revenue of 1.325 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.36%, with a net profit of 265 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.32% [4] - Gubei Water Town generated revenue of 429 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 21.38% [4] - CYTS Boliand achieved revenue of 1.323 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.46%, but net profit increased significantly to 24.2938 million yuan due to improved management efficiency [5] - Strategic investment business remained stable, with Chuangge Technology achieving revenue of 2.574 billion yuan and net profit of 38.8879 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [5] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's ROE is expected to be 3.02%, 3.56%, and 4.06% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [7] - The PB ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 1.19x, 1.17x, and 1.16x, respectively [7] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to increase from 31% in 2023 to 52%, 61%, and 68% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9]