GONGNIU(603195) 西南证券·2024-11-07 09:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates robust performance with a revenue of 12.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 3.26 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year [1] - The company has shown resilience in the face of challenges in the real estate sector and a sluggish domestic home improvement market, highlighting its position as an industry leader [3] - The report emphasizes the company's strategic focus on digital transformation and operational efficiency, which has contributed to a stable gross margin of 43.1% in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.22 billion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 940 million yuan, down 2.2% year-on-year [1][2] - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters was 43.1%, with a net profit margin of 25.9%, reflecting a 1.7 percentage point increase year-on-year [2] Cost and Expense Management - The total expense ratio increased to 15.7%, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the expansion of new strategic businesses such as new energy and smart lighting [2] - The report details the breakdown of expense ratios: sales expense ratio at 8.4%, management expense ratio at 3.9%, and R&D expense ratio at 4.1%, all showing year-on-year increases [2] Business Strategy and Growth - The company is focusing on product innovation in traditional electrical connection businesses and expanding its smart electrical and lighting product ecosystem [3] - The new energy business is developing a comprehensive ecosystem around "light-storage-charge-discharge," aiming for rapid growth [3] - The company is actively exploring overseas markets with a strategy of full-category and full-localization [3] Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 3.38 yuan, 3.85 yuan, and 4.30 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22x, 19x, and 17x [3]