古井贡酒：省内基本盘稳固，降速稳健经营

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a 19.5% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 24.5% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024. In Q3 2024, revenue and net profit increased by 13.4% and 13.6% respectively, with improved net profit margin driven by enhanced gross sales [2][5] - The company is expected to benefit from structural growth in the domestic market, particularly in the 100-300 RMB price range, with a strong likelihood of achieving its revenue targets for 2024 [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of November 7, 2024, the closing price is 219.06 RMB, with a circulating share capital of 5.29 billion shares and a net asset value per share of 45.20 RMB [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 54.6 billion RMB, a 24.6% increase year-on-year, with a cash collection rate of 103.74% [4] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 239.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 18.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 54.8 billion RMB, reflecting a 19.4% increase [5][6] - The revenue growth rates for the years 2024 to 2026 are forecasted at 18.2%, 12.3%, and 13.9% respectively, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 19.4%, 16.5%, and 19.3% [6] Market Dynamics - The company’s product structure is shifting towards the 100-300 RMB range, with significant growth in the sales of aged raw liquor products, particularly "Gu 8" and "Gu 16," which saw growth rates exceeding 30% [3] - The company has completed its revenue collection tasks in most regions within Anhui province, with progress in other provinces ranging from 70% to 90% [3] Cost and Margin Analysis - In Q3 2024, the net profit margin increased by 0.17 percentage points to 23.1%, although the gross margin decreased by 1.55 percentage points due to changes in product mix and increased channel expenses [4] - The company has focused its expense optimization efforts on the consumer end, leading to a decrease in sales and management expense ratios [4]