新天绿能：2024年三季报点评：聚焦优质风电，燃气业务仍然稳健

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 10 yuan, compared to the current price of 7.93 yuan [1] Core Views - The company's wind power business is affected by wind conditions, with a slight decline in power generation and grid-connected electricity in Q3 2024 [2] - The gas business shows strong growth, with a significant increase in gas transmission and sales volume in Q3 2024 [2] - LNG sales have surged, with a year-on-year increase of 893.26% in the first three quarters of 2024, and further growth is expected as production capacity ramps up [2] - The company plans to gradually divest its photovoltaic business to focus on wind power and natural gas-related industries, enhancing its core competitiveness [2] - The report forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company to grow by 10.3%, 22.2%, and 29.8% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.652 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.72%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 66 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.14% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company's revenue reached 15.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.31%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.495 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.74% [1] - The average grid-connected electricity price (excluding tax) for the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.44 yuan/kWh, unchanged from the same period last year [2] Business Segments - Wind Power: In Q3 2024, the company generated 2,305,457.14 MWh of electricity, a year-on-year decrease of 2.29%, and grid-connected electricity was 2,241,608.49 MWh, down 2.53% year-on-year [2] - Gas: In Q3 2024, the company's gas transmission and sales volume reached 1,115.1729 million cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 23.41%, with sales volume and agency transmission volume increasing by 21.41% and 34.89%, respectively [2] - LNG: The company's LNG sales volume increased by 893.26% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by capacity expansion [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.4 billion, 3.0 billion, and 3.9 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 10.3%, 22.2%, and 29.8% [2] - The target market value for 2025 is 42.7 billion yuan, with a target price of 10 yuan, based on a valuation of 12x PE for the gas sector and 16x PE for the wind power sector [2]