华鲁恒升：公司事件点评报告：装置检修叠加产品利差收窄，公司Q3业绩承压

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][7] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was under pressure due to equipment maintenance and narrowing product margins, with a revenue of 82.05 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 17.43% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 8.81% [2][3] - The company has implemented a low-cost strategy that has improved net cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 38.91 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 10.29% [4] - The Jingzhou project is progressing steadily, contributing to the company's transformation and long-term growth potential, with the first phase already in production [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 251.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.16% [2] - In Q3 alone, the company reported a net profit of 8.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 32.27% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 28.84% [2][3] Production and Costs - Equipment maintenance led to a decrease in production and an increase in costs, with significant declines in the production and sales of key products, including a 7.70% decrease in new energy materials and a 4.61% decrease in chemical fertilizers [3] - The average prices of main products such as urea and isooctanol fell by 5.44% and 5.75% respectively in Q3, while the price of raw materials remained high, further squeezing profit margins [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to push its low-cost strategy, achieving a reduction in total expense ratio to 3.71%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The Jingzhou project is expected to enhance the company's long-term growth, with the first phase already operational and the second phase under construction [5] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 2.21, 2.67, and 3.09 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.9, 9.0, and 7.8 [7][9]