CNNP(601985) 华创证券·2024-11-08 01:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Nuclear Power (601985) with a target price of 11.6 CNY, compared to the current price of 9.99 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company's performance remains stable with sufficient growth momentum, despite a slight decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024 compared to the previous year. The report projects a net profit of approximately 110/121/131 billion CNY for 2024 to 2026, with growth rates of +4%/+10%/+8% respectively [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 19.545 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 1.25%. For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue reached 56.986 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 was 3.052 billion CNY, down 7.1% year-on-year. For the first three quarters, the net profit was 8.934 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.22% year-on-year [1]. Power Generation and Capacity - The cumulative power generation for the first three quarters was 160.388 billion kWh, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year. The on-grid power generation was 151.121 billion kWh, up 2.92% year-on-year [2]. - Nuclear power generation in the first three quarters was 135.638 billion kWh, down 2.74% year-on-year, primarily due to increased maintenance days compared to the previous year [2]. - Renewable energy generation reached 24.750 billion kWh, a significant increase of 48.19% year-on-year, driven by growth in installed capacity [2]. Installed Capacity and Future Growth - As of Q3 2024, the company operates 25 nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 23.75 million kW and has 18 units under construction or awaiting approval with a capacity of 20.64 million kW [2]. - The company has a total installed capacity of 24.147 million kW in renewable energy, with wind and solar power capacities of 7.831 million kW and 16.316 million kW respectively [2]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts total revenue for 2024 to be 78.501 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 4.7%. The net profit is projected at 11.048 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 4.0% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.59 CNY in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 [3].