AIHUA GROUP(603989) 光大证券·2024-11-08 01:18Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - Q3 profitability improved QoQ, with downstream sectors continuing to expand [1] - Revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 2.965 billion yuan, up 15.16% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 198 million yuan, down 38.66% YoY [1] - Q3 revenue was 1.041 billion yuan, up 2.57% YoY but down 6.42% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 94 million yuan, down 26.79% YoY but up 35.78% QoQ [1] - Gross margin for Q3 was 21.27%, down 2.39 ppts YoY but up 0.50 ppts QoQ, and net margin was 8.92%, down 3.48 ppts YoY but up 2.80 ppts QoQ [1] - The company is actively expanding into high-end customer segments in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, energy storage, wind power, and industrial control, while deepening its presence in international markets [1] - The company has achieved significant market penetration in the new energy sector, with 95% brand coverage, and 90% and 92% coverage in on-board OBC and industrial control markets, respectively [1] - The company is enhancing its self-sufficiency rate for raw materials, with a complete industrial chain from "light foil + etched foil + formed foil + electrolyte + aluminum electrolytic capacitors" [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 3.701 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.52%, and net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 307 million yuan, down 12.60% YoY [2] - EPS for 2024E is forecasted at 0.77 yuan, with ROE (diluted) at 8.11% [2] - P/E ratio for 2024E is estimated at 20X, with P/B at 1.6X [2] - Revenue for 2025E is projected at 4.061 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.75%, and net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 364 million yuan, up 18.73% YoY [2] - EPS for 2025E is forecasted at 0.91 yuan, with ROE (diluted) at 8.99% [2] - P/E ratio for 2025E is estimated at 17X, with P/B at 1.5X [2] Market and Valuation Data - Current stock price is 15.20 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 6.097 billion yuan [3] - The stock's 1-year performance shows a relative return of -44.02% and an absolute return of -32.84% [4] - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 5.385 billion yuan in 2022 to 7.016 billion yuan in 2026E [6] - The company's debt-to-equity ratio is expected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 37% in 2022 to 38% in 2026E [6] Industry and Company Rating System - The rating system includes "Buy," "Overweight," "Neutral," "Underweight," and "Sell," based on expected investment returns relative to market benchmarks [7]