Sugon(603019) 中原证券·2024-11-08 02:23Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company for the first time, indicating a positive outlook on its future performance [1][3] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 8.041 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.65%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 770 million yuan, up 2.57% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross margin remained stable, with a Q3 gross margin of 28.20%, an increase of 2.71 percentage points year-on-year and 2.42 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company's investment in Haishen Information (holding 27.96%) contributed significantly, with Haishen's revenue reaching 6.137 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 55.64%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.526 billion yuan, up 69.22% year-on-year [1] - The company's liquid cooling server business, through its subsidiary Shuguang Shuchuang (indirectly holding 62.07%), is expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI-driven high-performance computing, with the domestic liquid cooling server market projected to grow at a CAGR of 47.6% from 2023 to 2028 [1][7] Industry Analysis - The server industry in 2024 is influenced by structural demand changes, with overseas markets and Huawei partners showing strong growth, while domestic internet companies are increasing capital expenditures, driving demand for white-label servers [1] - The domestic AI chip supply has not fully met market demand, but with the improvement in performance and capacity release of domestic chips, AI server demand is expected to rebound rapidly by 2025 [1] - The report highlights that the company's gross margin performance in Q3 was significantly better than its peers, reflecting the differentiation in its product and layout strategy [1] Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.34 yuan, 1.69 yuan, and 2.13 yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 56.26x, 44.76x, and 35.47x based on the closing price of 75.60 yuan on November 7, 2024 [3] - Revenue is expected to grow from 15.382 billion yuan in 2024 to 20.435 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit increasing from 1.966 billion yuan in 2024 to 3.119 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - The company's gross margin is projected to remain stable, with a slight increase from 26.88% in 2024 to 26.29% in 2026, while net margin is expected to improve from 12.78% in 2024 to 15.26% in 2026 [8]