北方稀土：Q3业绩改善，降本增效成效显著

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 21.56 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.50%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 405 million yuan, down 70.64% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, the revenue was 8.57 billion yuan, an increase of 18.56% quarter-on-quarter and 1.54% year-on-year, with a net profit of 360 million yuan, up 10.94% year-on-year [2] - The company achieved significant growth in production and sales across various product categories during the reporting period. The production of rare earth smelting and separation products increased by 12.95% year-on-year, rare earth metal products by 39.46%, and rare earth functional materials by 21.35%. Sales also saw substantial growth, with smelting and separation products up 20.45%, metal products up 27.90%, and functional materials up 19.65% [2] - Cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures have shown significant results, with manufacturing costs down 3.44% year-on-year after excluding the impact of auxiliary materials and energy price changes. The comprehensive financing cost of interest-bearing debt decreased by 15 basis points compared to the end of the previous year. Operational and maintenance costs for subsidiary equipment fell by 34.2% year-on-year [3] - The company is advancing its new generation of green mining and rare earth smelting separation upgrade projects, with the first phase completed and put into production on October 15, 2024, achieving industry-leading technology, equipment, environmental protection, and production capacity [3] - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 1.03 billion yuan, 2.19 billion yuan, and 2.90 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 83, 39, and 29 [3] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 31.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected at 1.03 billion yuan, down 56.5% year-on-year. The gross margin is expected to be 8.2% [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 42.67 billion yuan by 2026, with total liabilities of 14.81 billion yuan [5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.28 yuan, with P/E ratios expected to be 82.85 for 2024 and 38.93 for 2025 [6]