大北农：养殖盈利兑现，种业发展未来可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strongly Recommend" rating for the company, with a positive outlook on its future performance [2][4] Core Views - The company's pig farming business has shown significant profit realization, with a notable improvement in Q3 2024 [2] - The seed business is expected to grow steadily, with both traditional and biotech breeding sectors showing promising potential [2] - The company's feed business, although under pressure, has shown signs of recovery in Q3, with a 7-8% increase in pig feed sales [2] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.047 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.73%, but net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 315.38% to 289 million yuan [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 20.142 billion yuan, down 15.83% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 114.69% to 133 million yuan [2] - The company's pig farming segment generated a profit of 200-250 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight increase in piglet costs but overall cost improvements [2] Business Segments - Feed Business: The company sold 3.9 million tons of feed in the first three quarters of 2024, a 9.30% year-on-year decrease, with pig feed sales dropping by 10.29% to 3.05 million tons [2] - Pig Farming: The company's pig inventory exceeded 4 million heads by the end of September 2024, with a target of 6 million heads for the full year [2] - Seed Business: The company sold over 20 million kilograms of seeds in the first three quarters of 2024, a 50% year-on-year increase, with contract liabilities for seed business reaching nearly 1.4 billion yuan [2] Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 368 million yuan, 828.78 million yuan, and 1.07476 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.09 yuan, 0.18 yuan, and 0.24 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to be 55, 27, and 21 times for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Market Data - The company's 52-week stock price range is between 3.75 yuan and 7.35 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 21.229 billion yuan [4] - The company's total shares outstanding are 432.372 million, with all shares being tradable A-shares [4]