截至2026年1月20日 10:42，中证畜牧养殖指数(930707)成分股方面涨跌互现，回盛生物领涨9.91%，星 湖科技上涨2.51%，正邦科技上涨2.47%；生物股份领跌。养殖ETF(516760)最新报价0.68元。 消息面上，近期，消费旺季推动猪价延续反弹趋势。广发证券指出，1月16日全国瘦肉型生猪出栏均价 达12.49元/公斤，环比上涨2.6%，同时仔猪价格快速回升至330元/头，周环比涨幅达7.5%，反映出养殖 户对下半年猪价预期向好及补栏积极性提升。当前行业进入"拉锯"状态，具备成本优势的企业在竞争中 更具韧性。此外，下游乳企大包粉库存逐步去化，原奶供需趋于平衡，供给拐点已现，看好原奶周期进 入上行通道。 华西证券认为，节前消费旺季支撑猪价继续抬升，本周全国外三元生猪均价达12.7元/公斤，周环比上 涨1.26%。截至10月末，全国能繁母猪存栏量为3990万头，环比下降1.1%，生猪产能综合调控稳步推 进。随着11月屠宰量同比显著增长17.4%，生猪消费逐步步入旺季。当前自繁自养和外购仔猪养殖模式 均已实现扭亏为盈，分别盈利7.39元/头和2.31元/头。然而，节后作为传统消费淡季，叠加202 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The pork price is rising due to the peak consumption season, and there is an expectation for accelerated destocking after the holiday [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization and the commercialization of genetically modified crops to enhance yield and self-sufficiency [1][11] - The report highlights the profitability recovery in pig farming, with self-breeding and purchased piglets turning profitable, indicating a short-term challenge for capacity destocking [2][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is supporting Shandong Province in enhancing grain production and agricultural modernization, focusing on rural revitalization and technological innovation [1][11] - Key recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on leading seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11] Swine Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.72 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.26%. The number of breeding sows is 39.9 million, showing a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [2][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including stocks like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2359.57 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.26% [24] - Wheat: The average price is 2513.57 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [27] - Soybeans: The average price is 4053.16 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.12% [38] - Cotton: The average price is 15640.00 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.18% [43]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The pork price is rising due to the peak consumption season, and there is an expectation for accelerated destocking after the holiday [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the importance of agricultural modernization and the commercialization of genetically modified crops to enhance yield and self-sufficiency [1][11] - The report highlights the profitability recovery in pig farming, with self-breeding and purchased piglets turning profitable, indicating a short-term challenge for capacity destocking [2][12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is supporting Shandong province in enhancing grain production and agricultural modernization, focusing on technology and innovation [1][11] - Key recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on genetically modified seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11] Swine Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.72 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.26% [2][12] - The number of breeding sows is 39.9 million, showing a decrease of 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a steady adjustment in production capacity [2][12] - Recommended stocks in the swine sector include Muyuan Foods, WH Group, and others, with a focus on companies that show significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity [2][12]

证券之星消息，1月16日饲料板块较上一交易日下跌0.52%，傲农生物领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4101.91，下跌0.26%。深证成指报收于14281.08，下跌0.18%。饲料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603363 | 傲农生物 | - 4.16 | -1.65% | 62.38万 | 2.61亿 | | 002100 | 天康生物 | 7.07 | -1.26% | 24.74万 | 1.76亿 | | 603609 | 禾丰股份 | 7.23 | -1.23% | 4.25万 | 3091.93万 | | 002311 | 海大集团 | 53.00 | -1.17% | 8.00万 | 4.29亿 | | 001366 | 播恩集团 | 13.47 | -1.03% | 3.34万 | 4504.72万 | | 002385 | 大北农 | 4.03 | -0.98% | 68.93万 | 2.79亿 | | 603668 | 天马科技 | 16 ...

Group 1 - The livestock farming industry in China is undergoing a significant transformation, with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission calling for capacity reduction and operational control as of September 2025 [1][19] - The pig cycle typically follows a pattern of price fluctuations, with each upward cycle lasting about 1-2 years and downward cycles lasting about 1-3 years, indicating potential for price increases following supply reductions [1][19] - Current signals suggest that the pig farming industry is at a relatively low valuation, with indications that capacity reduction may accelerate [1][19] Group 2 - The CSI Livestock Farming Industry Index, launched on December 31, 2021, includes 50 listed companies in sectors such as livestock products, animal health, feed, meat products, and dairy products, serving as a benchmark for the overall performance of the livestock farming sector [2][20] - The index has a base point of 1000 and aims to reflect the core fluctuations of the livestock farming industry, with a high concentration of leading companies [4][23] - The top five constituent stocks account for 50.1% of the index, while the top ten account for 67.6%, indicating a significant concentration advantage in the industry [4][23] Group 3 - The CSI Livestock Farming Industry Index has outperformed its peers by 5 percentage points since its inception, with a current PE (TTM) ratio of 19.02, indicating a low valuation at the bottom of the cycle and potential for valuation recovery [6][26] - The index's historical performance has shown significant volatility due to the cyclical nature of the livestock farming industry [6][26] - The index is designed to provide a high-purity tool for tracking the cyclical movements of pig farming, benefiting from the resilience and profit elasticity of leading enterprises during current cost-focused cycles [4][23] Group 4 - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include major players such as Muyuan Foods (15.6% weight), Wens Foodstuff Group (14.7%), and Haida Group (9.1%), highlighting the dominance of leading companies in the livestock sector [25] - The index is positioned to benefit from ongoing policy incentives and signals of cyclical reversal, making it an attractive investment option for those optimistic about the long-term development of the livestock farming industry [33]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603363 | 傲农生物 | 4.23 | -4.08% | 82.90万 | 3.56亿 | | 002548 | 金新农 | 6.15 | -3.91% | 42.22万 | 2.62亿 | | 300673 | 佩蒂股份 | 18.75 | -2.09% | 0 6.49万 | 1.22亿 | | 002696 | 百洋股份 | 7.33 | -1.74% | 9.46万 | 6938.37万 | | 002891 | 中宠股份 | 51.50 | -1.38% | 4.48万 | 2.31亿 | | 920419 | 路斯股份 | 16.68 | -1.24% | 1.50万 | 2525.55万 | | 000702 | 正虹科技 | 6.69 | -0.89% | 3.79万 | 2540.84万 | | 301498 | 乖宝宠物 | 68.04 | -0.67% | 3.13万 | 2.12亿 | | 002567 | 唐人神 | ...

评论： 1、玉米：主产国预期丰产，供需缺口显著收窄 新季玉米产需预期上修，供需缺口显著收窄。基于中国、美国等重要玉米生产 国产量预期大幅上修，本月 USDA 报告调增 2025/26 年全球玉米产量预期约 1305 万吨至 12.96 亿吨，较上年度增加 5.3%，较前值扩大约 1.02pct。其中， 1.中国：结合官方数据，本月报告上修中国 25/26 年玉米产量预期至创纪录的 3.01 亿吨，较前值扩大约 2.1%，较上年度扩大约 2.1pct。2.美国：本月报告调 增 25/26 年美国玉米产量约 681 万吨至 4.32 亿吨，较上年度扩大约 14%。需求 方面，饲用需求及总需求较前值均略有上调，预计 2025/26 年全球玉米总需求 将达到创纪录的 13 亿吨，对应产需缺口收窄至 379 万吨（前值为 1422 万吨）。 预计 2025/26 全球玉米库销比约 22.4%，较上年度下滑约 1.16 个百分点，较前 值收窄约 0.86pct。本月报告利空国际玉米价格。 证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 01 月 15 日 全球粮作产量预期上修，小麦大豆供应略宽松 USDA 月度供需报告点评 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry is expected to see a peak in hog slaughtering in late January, with prices anticipated to slightly rise from the bottom before the Lunar New Year. In December 2025, the national average selling price of hogs was 11.59 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.84% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.23% [5][15] - The December hog slaughter volume was 5.93 million heads, which is a month-on-month increase of 18.68% and a year-on-year increase of 3.50% [15] - The overall supply pressure is expected to ease due to increased slaughtering in late December, leading to a slight price increase for hogs, although the upward potential remains limited [5][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry anticipates a peak in hog slaughtering in late January, with prices expected to rise slightly from the bottom before the Lunar New Year. The December 2025 national average selling price of hogs was 11.59 yuan/kg, down 0.84% month-on-month and down 26.23% year-on-year [5][15] - The December hog slaughter volume was 5.93 million heads, up 18.68% month-on-month and 3.50% year-on-year [15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of large hogs is expected to remain ample, with the proportion of hogs over 150 kg slightly higher than the same period in 2024. As of January 1, 2026, the proportion of hogs over 150 kg was 6.76%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.25 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0.03 percentage points [6][18] - The demand recovery, combined with reduced weight slaughtering, has led to an increase in the price difference for hogs. However, high frozen product inventory levels may suppress future hog prices, with the national frozen product inventory rate at 19.89%, up 4.93 percentage points year-on-year [21][23] Financial Performance of Listed Companies - In December 2025, 12 listed hog farming companies collectively slaughtered 17.6075 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 8.86%. The individual slaughter volumes varied significantly among companies, with some experiencing substantial growth while others faced declines [29][30] - The average selling prices of major listed hog companies in December showed a month-on-month decline, with prices ranging from 10.66 to 12.21 yuan/kg, reflecting various percentage changes [36][37]

Core Viewpoint - Dabeinong (002385) emphasizes its commitment to controlling external guarantee risks, primarily providing guarantees for its wholly-owned and controlled subsidiaries, accounting for nearly 90% of total guarantees [1] Group 1 - The company has established strict internal control processes for the selection and risk assessment of guarantee objects [1] - Dabeinong closely monitors the operational status of the guaranteed parties and takes timely measures to prevent potential risks [1]

证券日报网讯 1月12日，大北农在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司将持续关注行业动态，积极应 对市场变化，努力提升公司的市场竞争力和盈利能力。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...