证券之星消息，1月16日饲料板块较上一交易日下跌0.52%，傲农生物领跌。当日上证指数报收于 4101.91，下跌0.26%。深证成指报收于14281.08，下跌0.18%。饲料板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603363 | 傲农生物 | - 4.16 | -1.65% | 62.38万 | 2.61亿 | | 002100 | 天康生物 | 7.07 | -1.26% | 24.74万 | 1.76亿 | | 603609 | 禾丰股份 | 7.23 | -1.23% | 4.25万 | 3091.93万 | | 002311 | 海大集团 | 53.00 | -1.17% | 8.00万 | 4.29亿 | | 001366 | 播恩集团 | 13.47 | -1.03% | 3.34万 | 4504.72万 | | 002385 | 大北农 | 4.03 | -0.98% | 68.93万 | 2.79亿 | | 603668 | 天马科技 | 16 ...

Group 1 - The livestock farming industry in China is undergoing a significant transformation, with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission calling for capacity reduction and operational control as of September 2025 [1][19] - The pig cycle typically follows a pattern of price fluctuations, with each upward cycle lasting about 1-2 years and downward cycles lasting about 1-3 years, indicating potential for price increases following supply reductions [1][19] - Current signals suggest that the pig farming industry is at a relatively low valuation, with indications that capacity reduction may accelerate [1][19] Group 2 - The CSI Livestock Farming Industry Index, launched on December 31, 2021, includes 50 listed companies in sectors such as livestock products, animal health, feed, meat products, and dairy products, serving as a benchmark for the overall performance of the livestock farming sector [2][20] - The index has a base point of 1000 and aims to reflect the core fluctuations of the livestock farming industry, with a high concentration of leading companies [4][23] - The top five constituent stocks account for 50.1% of the index, while the top ten account for 67.6%, indicating a significant concentration advantage in the industry [4][23] Group 3 - The CSI Livestock Farming Industry Index has outperformed its peers by 5 percentage points since its inception, with a current PE (TTM) ratio of 19.02, indicating a low valuation at the bottom of the cycle and potential for valuation recovery [6][26] - The index's historical performance has shown significant volatility due to the cyclical nature of the livestock farming industry [6][26] - The index is designed to provide a high-purity tool for tracking the cyclical movements of pig farming, benefiting from the resilience and profit elasticity of leading enterprises during current cost-focused cycles [4][23] Group 4 - The top ten constituent stocks of the index include major players such as Muyuan Foods (15.6% weight), Wens Foodstuff Group (14.7%), and Haida Group (9.1%), highlighting the dominance of leading companies in the livestock sector [25] - The index is positioned to benefit from ongoing policy incentives and signals of cyclical reversal, making it an attractive investment option for those optimistic about the long-term development of the livestock farming industry [33]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 603363 | 傲农生物 | 4.23 | -4.08% | 82.90万 | 3.56亿 | | 002548 | 金新农 | 6.15 | -3.91% | 42.22万 | 2.62亿 | | 300673 | 佩蒂股份 | 18.75 | -2.09% | 0 6.49万 | 1.22亿 | | 002696 | 百洋股份 | 7.33 | -1.74% | 9.46万 | 6938.37万 | | 002891 | 中宠股份 | 51.50 | -1.38% | 4.48万 | 2.31亿 | | 920419 | 路斯股份 | 16.68 | -1.24% | 1.50万 | 2525.55万 | | 000702 | 正虹科技 | 6.69 | -0.89% | 3.79万 | 2540.84万 | | 301498 | 乖宝宠物 | 68.04 | -0.67% | 3.13万 | 2.12亿 | | 002567 | 唐人神 | ...

评论： 1、玉米：主产国预期丰产，供需缺口显著收窄 新季玉米产需预期上修，供需缺口显著收窄。基于中国、美国等重要玉米生产 国产量预期大幅上修，本月 USDA 报告调增 2025/26 年全球玉米产量预期约 1305 万吨至 12.96 亿吨，较上年度增加 5.3%，较前值扩大约 1.02pct。其中， 1.中国：结合官方数据，本月报告上修中国 25/26 年玉米产量预期至创纪录的 3.01 亿吨，较前值扩大约 2.1%，较上年度扩大约 2.1pct。2.美国：本月报告调 增 25/26 年美国玉米产量约 681 万吨至 4.32 亿吨，较上年度扩大约 14%。需求 方面，饲用需求及总需求较前值均略有上调，预计 2025/26 年全球玉米总需求 将达到创纪录的 13 亿吨，对应产需缺口收窄至 379 万吨（前值为 1422 万吨）。 预计 2025/26 全球玉米库销比约 22.4%，较上年度下滑约 1.16 个百分点，较前 值收窄约 0.86pct。本月报告利空国际玉米价格。 证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 01 月 15 日 全球粮作产量预期上修，小麦大豆供应略宽松 USDA 月度供需报告点评 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The industry is expected to see a peak in hog slaughtering in late January, with prices anticipated to slightly rise from the bottom before the Lunar New Year. In December 2025, the national average selling price of hogs was 11.59 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.84% and a year-on-year decrease of 26.23% [5][15] - The December hog slaughter volume was 5.93 million heads, which is a month-on-month increase of 18.68% and a year-on-year increase of 3.50% [15] - The overall supply pressure is expected to ease due to increased slaughtering in late December, leading to a slight price increase for hogs, although the upward potential remains limited [5][15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The industry anticipates a peak in hog slaughtering in late January, with prices expected to rise slightly from the bottom before the Lunar New Year. The December 2025 national average selling price of hogs was 11.59 yuan/kg, down 0.84% month-on-month and down 26.23% year-on-year [5][15] - The December hog slaughter volume was 5.93 million heads, up 18.68% month-on-month and 3.50% year-on-year [15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of large hogs is expected to remain ample, with the proportion of hogs over 150 kg slightly higher than the same period in 2024. As of January 1, 2026, the proportion of hogs over 150 kg was 6.76%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.25 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 0.03 percentage points [6][18] - The demand recovery, combined with reduced weight slaughtering, has led to an increase in the price difference for hogs. However, high frozen product inventory levels may suppress future hog prices, with the national frozen product inventory rate at 19.89%, up 4.93 percentage points year-on-year [21][23] Financial Performance of Listed Companies - In December 2025, 12 listed hog farming companies collectively slaughtered 17.6075 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 8.86%. The individual slaughter volumes varied significantly among companies, with some experiencing substantial growth while others faced declines [29][30] - The average selling prices of major listed hog companies in December showed a month-on-month decline, with prices ranging from 10.66 to 12.21 yuan/kg, reflecting various percentage changes [36][37]

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