PDH(SH:600048) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-11-08 06:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown a strong rebound in monthly data, with a significant improvement in contracted sales in October 2024, marking the first positive year-on-year growth in contracted sales area in 18 months [3] - The company remains the industry leader in sales rankings, with over 70% of land acquisition occurring in first-tier cities this year [3] - Profit forecasts for the company are maintained, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 at 13.16 billion, 14.19 billion, and 15.10 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.10, 1.19, and 1.26 yuan [3] Monthly Sales Data - In October 2024, the company achieved a contracted sales amount of 42.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.85%, and a contracted sales area of 2.2259 million square meters, up 23.98% year-on-year [3][6] - For the first ten months of 2024, the total contracted sales amount was 284.02 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.88% year-on-year, with a total contracted sales area of 15.7221 million square meters, down 25.07% year-on-year [3][6] Land Acquisition - The company acquired a residential land plot in Guangzhou for a total price of 5.9 billion yuan, with a land area of 55,200 square meters and a total construction area of 138,000 square meters [3] - In the first ten months of 2024, the company acquired 25 plots of land with a total construction area of 2.368 million square meters, corresponding to land payments of 45.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 68.1% [3] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's projected revenue for 2024 is 383.16 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.5% [4] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 13.16 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [4] - The company's P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 10.6, 9.8, and 9.2 respectively [4]