TKGF(601233) 华创证券·2024-11-08 06:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.7 CNY, compared to the current price of 12.59 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 76.049 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 23.17%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.007 billion CNY, up 11.41% year-on-year. However, in Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 27.834 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 12.03%, but a net loss of 59 million CNY, a significant decline of 107.34% year-on-year [1][2]. - The decline in oil prices has led to inventory losses and PTA losses, negatively impacting overall performance. The company has a total filament capacity of 13.5 million tons, with Q3 sales of 3.585 million tons, reflecting a 9% increase quarter-on-quarter. The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY have decreased by 2.7%, 2.5%, and 1.8% respectively due to falling oil prices [2]. - The company is a leader in the filament industry, with a global market share of 18% and a domestic market share of 28%. The company is focusing on upstream refining projects, including the integrated refining project in Indonesia, which is expected to significantly enhance profitability once completed [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to be 82.64 billion CNY in 2023, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 797 million CNY, reflecting a staggering growth of 512.1% [3]. - For the years 2024 to 2026, the projected net profits are 1.375 billion CNY, 2.373 billion CNY, and 3.255 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 72.5%, 72.6%, and 37.2% [2][3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated to be 0.57 CNY, 0.98 CNY, and 1.35 CNY respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 22x, 13x, and 9x [2][3].