SFY(002572) 长江证券·2024-11-08 06:28Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 76.56 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.22 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7% and 3% respectively. In Q3 alone, the revenue was 27.26 billion yuan, with a decline of 21% [4][5]. - The company's integrated home strategy continues to show resilience, with the integrated decoration segment growing by 7% year-on-year, while traditional retail and bulk sales faced declines of approximately 25%-30% due to weak industry conditions and a decrease in housing completions [4][5]. - The company is actively responding to government subsidies, which are expected to boost demand and enhance market share. Recent collaborations with local governments, including a national subsidy agreement with Guangzhou, are anticipated to yield positive results [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 76.56 billion yuan, with a net profit of 9.22 billion yuan, marking a decline of 7% and 3% respectively. In Q3, revenues were 27.26 billion yuan, down 21% year-on-year [4][5]. - The gross profit margin slightly decreased by 0.9 percentage points in Q3, influenced by revenue declines and the growth of lower-margin export business [4][5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to optimize its store structure, with a net change in the number of stores for its brands during Q3 being -9 for Sophia, +1 for Simil, and +26 for Milan [4][5]. - The integrated home strategy is positioned as a core focus, with potential growth from Milan and integrated decoration, supported by category expansion and increased customer spending [4][5]. Market Outlook - The company expects to achieve net profits of approximately 12.3 billion yuan and 13.1 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025 respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 15x and 14x. If the dividend payout ratio remains at 75%, the expected dividend yield is 4.9% [5].