CNNP(601985) 国投证券·2024-11-08 04:10Investment Rating - Buy-A rating maintained with a 6-month target price of 11.6 RMB [4][5][7] - Current stock price as of 2024-11-07 is 10.07 RMB [9] - 12-month price range: 6.89 to 12.22 RMB [12] Core Views - Short-term impact from maintenance at Fuqing Nuclear Power Plant, but strong medium-to-long-term growth potential [13] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 569.86 billion RMB, up 1.6% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 4.22% to 8.934 billion RMB [13] - Total power generation in the first three quarters of 2024 was 160.388 billion kWh, up 2.7% YoY, with nuclear power generation down 2.74% to 135.638 billion kWh [14] - New energy power generation surged 48.19% YoY to 24.75 billion kWh, driven by new capacity additions [14] - Profit decline attributed to lower market-based electricity prices and slower revenue growth compared to cost increases [14] Nuclear Power Projects - Ample nuclear power projects under construction and planning, ensuring future growth [15] - 13 nuclear power units under construction and 5 in planning, with a total capacity of 20.641 GW [15] - Expected to commission 1/1/2/5 units in 2024/2025/2026/2027 respectively [15] - Recent approval of 5 nuclear projects with 11 units, including 3 units from the company with a total capacity of 3.076 GW [15] New Energy Development - New energy installed capacity reached 24.147 GW by Q3 2024, including 7.8312 GW of wind and 16.3158 GW of solar [16] - Under-construction new energy capacity stands at 15.0452 GW, with 3.1977 GW of wind and 11.8475 GW of solar [16] - On track to achieve the "14th Five-Year Plan" target of 30 GW new energy capacity by 2025 [16] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 projected at 76.6/85.744/93.436 billion RMB, with growth rates of 2.2%/11.9%/9% [21] - Net profit for 2024-2026 expected to be 10.868/11.619/12.663 billion RMB, with growth rates of 2.3%/6.9%/9% [21] - EPS for 2024-2026 forecasted at 0.58/0.62/0.67 RMB [22] - P/E ratios for 2024-2026 estimated at 17.4x/16.2x/14.9x [22] Market Performance - Total market capitalization: 190.15468 billion RMB [20] - Circulating market capitalization: 190.15468 billion RMB [20] - Total shares outstanding: 18.88328 billion [20]