中航沈飞：业绩短期承压，需求拐点将至

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but a demand turning point is expected soon. The revenue decline is attributed to the delay in contract signings, with a significant year-on-year revenue drop of 68.01% in Q3 2024. However, an increase in expected daily related transactions suggests a potential recovery in Q4 2024 [5][6] - There is a strong and urgent demand for new and upgraded aviation equipment, particularly as China's air force transitions to a strategic air force. The J-16 series, a key model for the air force, and the new J-35 carrier-based stealth fighter are expected to see substantial demand, benefiting the company [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 252.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.95%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18.18 billion yuan, down 23.12% year-on-year. The company also reported a total debt of 357.70 billion yuan, an increase of 17.01% year-on-year, while cash and cash equivalents decreased by 3.64% to 89.40 billion yuan [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 1.36, 1.65, and 1.96 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 40.8, 33.6, and 28.3 based on the closing price of 55.52 yuan on November 7, 2024 [6][7]