SPM(601900) 国元证券·2024-11-08 08:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [5][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady revenue growth with a total operating income of 6.478 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.49%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.24% to 529 million yuan [3][4]. - The educational services segment is progressing steadily, with the company actively promoting digital transformation and information technology integration [4][5]. - The company has established a joint venture to enhance its capabilities in children's book publishing, aiming to increase market share and brand strength in this segment [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 529 million yuan, down 22.24% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 547 million yuan, a decline of 11.35% [3]. - In Q3 2024, the company recorded an operating income of 2.454 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.71%, with a net profit of 230 million yuan, down 14.63% [3]. - The company’s financial forecasts for 2024-2026 project net profits of 878 million, 982 million, and 1.061 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.98, 1.10, and 1.18 yuan [5][9]. Business Segment Analysis - The textbook and auxiliary materials business remains stable, benefiting from the population advantage in Guangdong province and potential regional integration [4]. - The general book publishing segment saw a revenue decline of 18.11% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 2.83%, down 5.8 percentage points [4]. - The company’s advertising and service revenue reached 58.26 million yuan, with signed advertising orders amounting to 63.58 million yuan [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 14, 13, and 12 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5][11]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 10.37% in 2024, improving slightly in subsequent years [11].