Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 3.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.13 billion yuan, up 10% year-on-year [2] - The third quarter showed a stable transition, with revenue of 2.07 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 880 million yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year [2] - The company continues to focus on high-end products and has adjusted its shipment strategy to ensure smooth cash flow [2][3] - The new general manager has been appointed, bringing extensive experience in sales management from the fast-moving consumer goods sector, which is expected to positively influence the company's strategic planning [4] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 4,966 in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.26% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) is expected to reach 1,315 in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.66% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected at 2.69 yuan per share for 2024, with a P/E ratio of 21.25 based on the current price [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 improved by 0.86 percentage points, attributed to price increases in high-end products [3] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 42.6%, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to optimized sales expense management [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 1.32 billion, 1.36 billion, and 1.51 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4%, 3%, and 11% [4] - The company maintains a focus on high-end product strategies and expects to benefit from improved external conditions in the future [4]
水井坊:业绩符合预期,经营平稳过渡