古井贡酒：年份原浆势能延续，Q3费用率降低持续兑现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4][12]. Core Views - The company has shown strong revenue and profit growth in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 52.63 billion yuan and net profit at 11.74 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 13.36% and 13.60% respectively [1][2]. - The company is expected to continue its expansion across the country, with significant market breakthroughs in several regions, establishing a solid growth foundation [1]. - Despite a slight decline in gross margin, the company has successfully reduced its expense ratios, leading to a stable net profit margin [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-3 2024, the company reported revenues of 190.69 billion yuan, net profit of 47.46 billion yuan, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 47.00 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.53%, 24.49%, and 25.55% respectively [1]. - In Q3 2024, the gross margin decreased by 1.55 percentage points to 77.87%, while the net profit margin increased slightly by 0.05 percentage points to 22.30% [2]. - The operating cash flow increased by 34.55% year-on-year to 13.34 billion yuan [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 239.6 billion yuan, 281.6 billion yuan, and 326.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 55.7 billion yuan, 69.1 billion yuan, and 83.9 billion yuan [2][6]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2024-2026 are 20.8X, 16.8X, and 13.8X respectively [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is making steady progress in its national expansion strategy, with first-tier markets achieving over 10 billion yuan in revenue and second-tier markets showing potential with revenues between 3-5 billion yuan [1]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and optimizing costs to maintain profitability amid a challenging demand environment [2].