SFY(002572) 西南证券·2024-11-08 12:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 22.88 RMB for the next 6 months [1] Core Views - The company's performance is temporarily under pressure due to weak terminal demand, but it is expected to improve with the support of national subsidies [1] - The company's profitability remains stable, with a net profit margin of 12% in the first three quarters of 2024, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company's whole-home channel has shown rapid growth, with a 26.34% year-on-year increase in revenue, driven by deep cooperation with leading decoration companies [1] - The company is actively responding to national policies, such as the "replacement of old with new" initiative, which is expected to boost demand in the fourth quarter of 2024 and beyond [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 7.66 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 920 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 2.73 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 360 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2% [1] - The company's gross profit margin in the first three quarters of 2024 was 35.8%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the continuous improvement in quality and efficiency [1] Business Segments - The Sofa brand generated revenue of 6.89 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.84%, with an average customer unit price of 23,679 RMB per order [1] - The Milan brand achieved revenue of 367 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.87%, with an average customer unit price of 14,731 RMB per order, up 448 RMB compared to the first half of 2024 [1] - The company's whole-home channel revenue increased by 26.34% year-on-year, with 277 cooperative decoration companies covering 196 cities and regions nationwide [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.30 RMB, 1.43 RMB, and 1.56 RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15x, 13x, and 12x [1] - The company's ROE for 2024-2026 is expected to be 15.47%, 14.95%, and 14.37%, respectively [2] - The company's target price is set at 22.88 RMB, based on a 16x P/E ratio for 2025, considering the successful development of its whole-home business and the optimization of its brand matrix [6] Industry Comparison - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies in the furniture industry is 13.92x for 2025 [6] - The company's P/E ratio for 2025 is 13x, slightly lower than the industry average, reflecting its strong position in the market and the potential for growth driven by national policies [6]