Kouzijiao(603589) 天风证券·2024-11-08 12:45Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5][13]. Core Views - The company experienced a slight decline in performance in Q3 2024, with revenues and net profits showing year-on-year decreases of 22.04% and 27.72% respectively, attributed to weak demand in the liquor market [1][3]. - The company is focusing on product iterations and has seen a rebound in contract liabilities, indicating potential for future growth despite current challenges [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts downward for 2024-2026, reflecting a cautious outlook due to weak demand recovery [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenues of 11.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.04% year-on-year, with net profits of 3.62 billion yuan, down 27.72% [1]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 5.90 percentage points to 71.91%, while the net profit margin fell by 2.38 percentage points to 30.28% [3]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 59.5 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 16.8 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [3][4]. Market and Channel Insights - The company’s sales in the domestic market remain strong, with a notable increase in the number of distributors, which rose by 88 to a total of 1,008 [2]. - The revenue from the company's liquor business in Q3 2024 was 11.72 billion yuan, with high-end liquor accounting for 97.13% of this revenue [1][2]. - The company is leveraging new product launches to enhance its market position, particularly in the Hefei market [2]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s projected P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 15.3X, 13.4X, and 12.0X respectively [3][4]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is expected to be 59.5 billion yuan, with a slight decline from previous estimates [4][9]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was reported at 3.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.32% year-on-year [3][8]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 12.53 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.30 billion yuan by 2026 [7][9]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to face challenges in demand recovery, leading to a cautious outlook for the next few years [3][4]. - The anticipated growth in revenue and profits is contingent on the successful launch and market acceptance of new products [2][3].