Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Views - The company's net profit for 2025 may face pressure, but a cyclical recovery is expected to provide a temporary boost to valuation, hence the "Buy" rating is maintained [1]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 has been revised upwards from $90 million to $110 million due to increased foreign exchange gains and government subsidies [1]. - For 2025-2026, net profit estimates have been downgraded from $160 million and $250 million to $90 million and $120 million respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of -62% and -14% [1]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of $526 million, a 10% quarter-on-quarter increase, slightly exceeding the upper guidance of $500-520 million [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 12.2%, which was below market expectations of 13.1% but above the company's guidance of 10-12% [2]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was $45 million, significantly higher than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $19 million, primarily due to foreign exchange gains and increased government subsidies [2]. Future Guidance - The company's guidance for Q4 2024 indicates expected revenue in the range of $530-540 million, which corresponds to a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 2%, lower than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of $560 million [3]. - The gross margin guidance for Q4 2024 is set at 11-13%, which is also below the market expectation of 16% [3]. - The company anticipates a slight increase in average selling price (ASP) due to delayed shipments reflecting previous price hikes, while overall shipment volume is expected to remain flat or slightly decline due to seasonal factors [3]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at $1.998 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [4]. - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be $106 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 62.3% [4]. - The projected gross margin for 2024 is 10.6%, with a net margin of 5.3% [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is estimated at 27.9, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 0.7 [4].
华虹半导体：港股公司信息更新报告：2025年盈利或承压，顺周期复苏阶段性提振估值