YILI(600887) 华龙证券·2024-11-09 08:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次覆盖) [1] Core Views - The company reported a good growth rate in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year increase of 8.53% in Q3 2024, despite a revenue decline of 6.66% [1] - The revenue decline has narrowed compared to Q2 2024, indicating a trend of marginal improvement [1] - The company is expected to see further revenue improvement in Q4 2024 and 2025, driven by a recovery in consumer demand and adjustments in inventory management [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 29.037 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.66%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.337 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.53% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 88.733 billion yuan, down 8.61% year-on-year, and net profit of 10.868 billion yuan, up 15.87% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin and net margin improved in Q3 2024, with gross margin at 34.85% and net margin at 11.45%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.48 percentage points and 1.62 percentage points, respectively [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 121.27 billion yuan, 126.27 billion yuan, and 131.54 billion yuan, respectively, with expected growth rates of -3.57%, 4.13%, and 4.17% [3] - The forecasted net profits for the same years are 11.736 billion yuan, 11.679 billion yuan, and 12.655 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.53%, -0.49%, and 8.36% [3] Market Position and Competitive Analysis - The company is recognized as a leading player in the dairy industry, with a strong competitive edge and anticipated marginal improvements in revenue [2][4] - The company's P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 15.1, 15.2, and 14.0, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [2][4]