WLY(SZ:000858) CHINA DRAGON SECURITIES·2024-11-09 08:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company, Wuliangye (000858.SZ), experienced a slowdown in revenue growth in Q3 2024, achieving a revenue of 17.268 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.39%, which is a significant decline from the 16.99% growth in Q3 2023 [1] - The report indicates that the company is focusing on increasing shareholder returns through higher dividends, with a commitment to distribute at least 70% of the annual net profit as cash dividends from 2024 to 2026 [1][2] - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position due to its brand strength and high dividend payout ratio, which enhances its investment value [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 67.916 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.60% year-on-year growth, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.931 billion yuan, up 9.19% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 76.17%, an increase of 2.77 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a price increase of 50 yuan per bottle for its flagship product [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 35.41%, slightly down by 0.06 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 91.170 billion yuan, 100.167 billion yuan, and 110.248 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.48%, 9.87%, and 10.06% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 32.994 billion yuan, 36.196 billion yuan, and 39.971 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 9.21%, 9.71%, and 10.43% [2] Valuation Metrics - As of November 1, 2024, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the forecasted years are 17.4X for 2024, 15.9X for 2025, and 14.4X for 2026 [2] - The report compares the company's valuation favorably against its peers, indicating a solid investment opportunity [2][3]