ORIENTAL YUHONG(002271) 华龙证券·2024-11-09 09:43Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its performance, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024. However, there are signs of improvement in operational quality, particularly in cash flow management [4][5] - The company is actively pursuing channel transformation and global expansion to seek new growth points, with a significant portion of revenue coming from engineering and retail channels [2][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 21.699 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.44%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.277 billion yuan, down 45.73% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported a revenue of 6.480 billion yuan, a decline of 23.84% year-on-year and 19.69% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit for this quarter was 334 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 67.23% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 43.91% [4] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was -492 million yuan, which is an improvement of 89.66% compared to the same period last year, indicating better cash collection and operational quality [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 29.062 billion yuan, 30.856 billion yuan, and 34.369 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates. The net profit forecasts for the same period are now 1.566 billion yuan, 2.137 billion yuan, and 2.645 billion yuan [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.7, 15.9, and 12.9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its channel development strategy and expanding its international presence through various initiatives, including establishing overseas companies and warehouses, and pursuing international research and development [2][4] - The engineering and retail channels accounted for 79.76% of total revenue in the first half of 2024, showing an 8.44% year-on-year growth, indicating a shift towards these sales models [2]