SUNWODA(300207) Haitong Securities·2024-11-09 09:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][5][6] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in consumer batteries, with a revenue of 38.28 billion and a year-over-year growth of 11.5% for the first three quarters. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 1.21 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 50.8% [5] - The company is actively promoting the "pack + cell" model for consumer batteries, achieving a self-supply rate of over 35% in consumer battery cells, which is expected to enhance profitability [5] - The energy storage cell shipments have significantly increased in Q3, with approximately 1.5 GWh shipped, indicating a positive trend for future profitability in this segment [6] - The company is expected to benefit from a mild recovery in the smartphone market and the growth of AI smartphones, which will drive demand for battery capacity [5][6] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 47.86 billion, with a year-over-year decrease of 8.2%. However, a recovery is expected with a revenue increase of 14.5% in 2024 [8][14] - The net profit for 2024 is estimated to be 1.741 billion, representing a significant year-over-year growth of 61.8% [8][14] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve, with projections of 15.5% in 2024 and 15.6% in 2025 [8][14] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.93, 1.11, and 1.37 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8][14] Product Segmentation - Consumer batteries are expected to grow at a rate of 5% in 2024, with a gross margin of 18.07% in the first half of 2024 [9][12] - The power battery segment is projected to see a 105% increase in shipments in 2024, driven by the growth of the new energy vehicle market [10][12] - The energy storage system revenue is expected to grow by 29% in 2024, with a gross margin of 22.71% [11][12] Valuation - The company is assigned a valuation range of 30.85 to 36.46 yuan based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 33-39 times for 2024 [5][13] - The average PE for comparable companies in 2024 is projected at 40 times, indicating a favorable valuation for the company [13]