SMIC(688981) 国泰君安·2024-11-09 13:41Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 136.80 CNY, unchanged from the previous rating [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in gross margin in Q3 2024, enhancing confidence in its autonomous control capabilities. The net profit for Q3 reached 1.06 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 56.4%, benefiting from consumer recovery and autonomous control catalysts [3][4]. - The company’s revenue for Q3 2024 was 15.609 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.14%. The revenue growth aligns with the company's performance guidance [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 exceeded expectations, reaching 23.92%, surpassing the original guidance of 20%. The average selling price (ASP) increased to 966 USD, a quarter-on-quarter rise of 15% [4]. Financial Summary - The company’s financial projections indicate a revenue of 56.301 billion CNY for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24.4%. The net profit is projected to be 4.46 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease of 7.5% compared to 2023 [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been revised to 0.56 CNY, 0.72 CNY, and 0.92 CNY respectively, up from previous estimates of 0.45 CNY, 0.65 CNY, and 0.91 CNY [4][5]. - The book value per share (BPS) estimates for the same years have also been adjusted to 18.34 CNY, 19.05 CNY, and 19.97 CNY, respectively [4]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as the largest and most advanced professional wafer foundry in mainland China, expected to benefit significantly from the demand for chip autonomy. The capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at 7.5 billion USD, with an anticipated increase in monthly production capacity by approximately 60,000 12-inch wafers by the end of 2024 [4]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for Q4 2024, with expectations of revenue remaining stable or growing by 2% quarter-on-quarter, and gross margins maintained between 18% and 20%, exceeding market expectations [4].