BAOFENG ENERGY(600989) 华鑫证券·2024-11-10 00:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Baofeng Energy [2] Core Views - Baofeng Energy's Q3 performance was under pressure due to equipment maintenance and narrowing profit margins, but new projects are expected to open growth opportunities [1] - The company reported a Q3 2024 total revenue of 24.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.99%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.537 billion yuan, up 16.60% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the single-quarter revenue was 7.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.91% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 14.91%, with a net profit of 1.232 billion yuan, down 24.60% year-on-year and 34.59% quarter-on-quarter [1] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - Q3 2024 revenue was impacted by equipment maintenance and market downturn, leading to a decrease in product sales [1] - Polyolefin sales decreased by 81,600 tons, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 14%, while EVA sales fell by 32,000 tons [1] - The price spread between products and raw materials narrowed, affecting profitability [1] Research and Development - R&D expenses significantly increased to 684 million yuan in Q3, a year-on-year growth of 94.35%, aimed at new product development and environmental improvements [1] Project Progress - The Inner Mongolia project is progressing well, with a total fixed asset investment of 25.4 billion yuan, and the first polyolefin unit completed mid-October 2024 [1] - The company is planning to establish a new base in Xinjiang with a capacity of 4 million tons of coal-to-olefins, leveraging local low-cost coal resources [1] Profit Forecast - EPS is projected to be 1.14 yuan, 1.84 yuan, and 2.03 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.7, 9.0, and 8.2 [2][4]