KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-10 00:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is maintained at "Buy" [3][5]. Core Views - The company has implemented a mid-term dividend plan, proposing a cash dividend of 23.882 CNY per share for the first half of 2024, with a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% for the following years [2][3]. - Guizhou Moutai aims for a total revenue growth target of 15% for 2024, with an expected earnings per share (EPS) of 68.41 CNY [3][4]. - The company is actively managing its market value through dividends and share buybacks, with a planned buyback of 3-6 billion CNY [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 173.562 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 15.3% [4]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 85.936 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth of 15.0% [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at 68.41 CNY, with subsequent years showing growth to 76.83 CNY in 2025 and 85.89 CNY in 2026 [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 1,609.97 CNY, with a target price set at 2,240.12 CNY, indicating significant upside potential [5][6]. - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 2,022.441 billion CNY [6]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is estimated at 33X, reflecting the company's strong operational resilience and growth potential [3][4]. - The net asset return rate is projected to increase from 34.7% in 2023 to 39.3% by 2026 [4].