HPI(600011) 兴业证券·2024-11-10 04:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting a potential upside of more than 15% relative to the relevant market index [3][7] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance was impacted by asset impairment and non-operating costs, but the profitability per kilowatt-hour for coal power improved after adjusting for impairment effects [3] - The company's coal power and gas power generation saw a slight decline and increase in Q3, respectively, with coal power profitability improving after adjusting for impairment [4] - The company's green energy segment and investment income showed mixed results, with wind and solar power generation increasing significantly but investment income declining [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 184.396 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.62%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 10.413 billion, down 17.12% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was RMB 65.59 billion, up 0.46% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.959 billion, down 52.69% year-on-year [3] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 16.85%, an increase of 2.40 percentage points year-on-year and 1.89 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] Industry Analysis - The company's coal power segment saw a slight decline in Q3, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.29% in electricity generation, while gas power generation increased by 8.69% [4] - The average settlement price for electricity in Q3 decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, a smaller decline compared to the 3.21% decrease in the first half of the year [4] - The company's green energy segment, including wind and solar power, showed strong growth in Q3, with wind power generation increasing by 25.65% and solar power generation increasing by 71.06% year-on-year [4] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 to be RMB 11.824 billion, RMB 12.385 billion, and RMB 13.303 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 40.0%, 4.7%, and 7.4% [3][5] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 9.6x, 9.2x, and 8.6x for 2024-2026, based on the closing price as of October 31, 2024 [5] Financial Ratios - The company's ROE is expected to be 9.1%, 8.9%, and 9.1% for 2024-2026, respectively [5] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to increase from 12.1% in 2023 to 16.1% in 2026 [5] - The company's EPS is expected to grow from RMB 0.54 in 2023 to RMB 0.85 in 2026 [5]