QILU BANK(601665) 兴业证券·2024-11-10 04:06Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating [2] Core Views - Qilu Bank's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 4.3% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company rising by 17.2% YoY (Q3 single quarter increased by 1.7% and 17.7% respectively) [2] - Net interest income decreased by 2.1% YoY (Q3 single quarter decreased by 2.0%), with loan growth slowing and interest margins narrowing [2] - Fee income increased by 17.6% YoY (Q3 single quarter increased by 32.7%) [2] - Investment-related income increased by 33.8% YoY (Q3 single quarter increased by 10.5%) [2] - Impairment losses decreased by 5.0% YoY, with the comprehensive credit cost slightly dropping to 0.74% [2] Scale and Loan Growth - Loan growth slowed to 13.4% YoY (compared to 15.3% in the first half of the year), with corporate and retail loan growth rates at 16.0% and 5.0% respectively [3] - New loans in the first three quarters amounted to approximately 32 billion yuan, a decrease of about 4 billion yuan YoY, with corporate, retail, and bill financing contributing 83%, 10%, and 7% respectively [3] Interest Margin - The interest margin for the first three quarters decreased by 2 basis points compared to the first half of the year, with a 4 basis point decrease in Q3 [3] Asset Quality - Non-performing loan ratio decreased by 1 basis point to 1.23%, with the provision coverage ratio increasing by 3 percentage points to 313% [3] - The loan-to-deposit ratio decreased by 1 basis point to 3.83%, and the attention rate decreased by 2 basis points to 1.12% [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Adjusted earnings forecast for 2024 and 2025, with EPS expected to be 1.04 yuan and 1.14 yuan respectively [3] - Estimated net asset value per share at the end of 2024 is 7.84 yuan, with a PB ratio of 0.72 times based on the closing price on November 4, 2024 [3] Balance Sheet and Income Statement Forecast - Total assets are projected to grow from 506,013 million yuan in 2022 to 932,756 million yuan in 2026 [4] - Net interest income is expected to increase from 8,575 million yuan in 2024 to 9,758 million yuan in 2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 3,587 million yuan in 2024 to 5,829 million yuan in 2026 [5] - EPS is projected to grow from 0.73 yuan in 2024 to 1.24 yuan in 2026 [5] - ROAE is expected to remain stable around 13.84% to 13.91% from 2024 to 2026 [5]