天康生物：猪价上涨成本下降，养猪盈利丰厚

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company Tian Kang Biological (002100) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved significant profitability in its pig farming business due to rising pig prices and improved costs, with a projected Q4 profit outlook remaining strong [1][3] - The company aims to increase its pig output to 3 million heads in 2024, with a long-term goal of reaching 5 million heads in the next 2-3 years [1][3] - The feed business remains stable, with a slight increase in sales volume, although revenue is expected to decline due to falling feed prices [1] Market Data - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.0%, but achieved a net profit of 570 million yuan, turning around from losses [1] - The company sold 2.144 million heads of pigs in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 4.15%, with an average selling price for fat pigs expected to exceed 18 yuan/kg in Q3 [1] - The average price of live pigs in Q3 was approximately 19.4 yuan/kg, a year-on-year increase of 21.6% [1] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 19.03 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected decline of 11.2% in 2024, followed by growth in subsequent years [3][4] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.53 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.75 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12.8, 10.1, and 9.1 [3][4]